Macedonia and the European Union

[George S.]

CT this one's for you:
Euro 'will be dead in five years'

The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph.

The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey – the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in the City since the election. The findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.


Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided. The finding is only one of a number of remarkable conclusions, including that:

• The economy will grow by well over a percentage point less next year than the Budget predicted in March.

• The Government will borrow almost £10bn less next year than the Treasury previously forecast, despite this weaker growth.

• Just as many economists think the Bank of England will not raise rates until 2012 or later as think it will lift borrowing costs this year.

But the conclusion on the euro is perhaps the most remarkable finding. A year ago or less, few within the City would have confidently predicted the currency's demise. But the travails of Greece, Spain and Portugal in recent weeks, plus German Chancellor Angela Merkel's acknowledgement that the currency is facing an "existential crisis", have radically shifted opinion.

Two of the eight experts who predicted that the currency would survive said it would do so only at the cost of seeing at least one of its members default on its sovereign debt. Andrew Lilico, chief economist at think tank Policy Exchange, said there was "nearly zero chance" of the euro surviving with its current membership, adding: "Greece will certainly default on its debts, and it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."

Douglas McWilliams of the Centre for Economics and Business Research said the single currency "may not even survive the next week", while David Blanchflower, professor at Dartmouth College and former Bank of England policymaker, added: "The political implications [of euro disintegration] are likely to be far-reaching – Germans are opposed to paying for others and may well quit."

Four of the economists said that despite the wider suspicion that Greece or some of the weaker economies may be forced out of the currency, the most likely country to leave would be Germany.

Peter Warburton of consultancy Economic Perspectives said: "Possibly Germany will leave. Possibly other central and eastern European countries – plus Denmark – will have joined. Possibly, there will be a multi-tier membership of the EU and a mechanism for entering and leaving the single currency. I think the project will survive, but not in its current form."

Tim Congdon of International Monetary Research said: "The eurozone will lose three or four members e_SEnDGreece, Portugal, maybe Ireland e_SEnD and could break up altogether because of the growing friction between France and Germany."

The recent worries about the euro's fate followed the creation last month of a $1 trillion (£691bn) bail-out fund to prevent future collapses. Although the fund boosted confidence initially, investors abandoned the euro after politicians showed reluctance to support it wholeheartedly.

05 Jun 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ive-years.html

The most radical comment is;
Andrew Lilico, chief economist at think tank Policy Exchange, expects some kind of revolution or coup in Greece over the next 5 years after it`s certain bankruptcy because of high debt value!!!

[George S.]

CT one for the road:

Now Spanish commission President Jose Manuel Barroso basically gives same warning as the Brits but he adds Spain and Portugal too.

Here it is;



Nightmare vision for Europe as EU chief warns 'democracy could disappear' in Greece, Spain and Portugal

* EU begin emergency billion-pound bailout of Spain
* Countries in debt may fall to dictators, EC chief warns
* Apocalyptic' vision as some states run out of money

Democracy could ‘collapse’ in Greece, Spain and Portugal unless urgent action is taken to tackle the debt crisis, the head of the European Commission has warned.

In an extraordinary briefing to trade union chiefs last week, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso set out an ‘apocalyptic’ vision in which crisis-hit countries in southern Europe could fall victim to military coups or popular uprisings as interest rates soar and public services collapse because their governments run out of money.

The stark warning came as it emerged that EU chiefs have begun work on an emergency bailout package for Spain which is likely to run into hundreds of billions of pounds.

A £650 billion bailout for Greece has already been agreed.

John Monks, former head of the TUC, said he had been ‘shocked’ by the severity of the warning from Mr Barroso, who is a former prime minister of Portugal. Mr Monks, now head of the European TUC, said: ‘I had a discussion with Barroso last Friday about what can be done for Greece, Spain, Portugal and the rest and his message was blunt: “Look, if they do not carry out these austerity packages, these countries could virtually disappear in the way that we know them as democracies. They've got no choice, this is it.” ‘He's very, very worried. He shocked us with an apocalyptic vision of democracies in Europe collapsing because of the state of indebtedness.’

Greece, Spain and Portugal, which only became democracies in the 1970s, are all facing dire problems with their public finances. All three countries have a history of military coups. Greece has been rocked by a series of national strikes and riots this year following the announcement of swingeing cuts to public spending designed to curb Britain’s deficit. Spain and Portugal have also announced austerity measures in recent weeks amid growing signs that the international markets are increasingly worried they could default on their debts.

Other EU countries seeing public protests over austerity plans include Hungary, Italy and Romania, where public sector pay is to be slashed by 25 per cent.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, who visited Madrid last week, said the situation in Spain should serve as a warning to Britain of the perils of failing to tackle the deficit quickly.

He said the collapse of confidence in Spain had seen interest rates soar, adding: ‘As the nation with the highest deficit in Europe in 2010, we simply cannot afford to let that happen to us too.’

Mr Barroso’s warning lays bare the concern at the highest level in Brussels that the economic crisis could lead to the collapse of not only the beleaguered euro, but the EU itself, along with a string of fragile democracies.


Mr Monks yesterday warned that the new austerity measures themselves could take the continent ‘back to the 1930s’.

In an interview with the Brussels-based magazine EU Observer he said: ‘This is extremely dangerous. 'This is 1931, we're heading back to the 1930s, with the Great Depression and we ended up with militarist dictatorship. ‘I'm not saying we're there yet, but it's potentially very serious, not just economically, but politically as well.’

Mr Monks said union barons across Europe were planning a co-ordinated ‘day of action’ against the cuts on 29 September, involving national strikes and protests.

David Cameron will travel to Brussels on Thursday for his first summit of EU leaders since the election. Leaders are expected to thrash out a rescue package for Spain’s teetering economy. Spain is expected to ask for an initial guarantee of at least £100 billion, although this figure could rise sharply if the crisis deepens.

Germany’s authoritative Frankfurter Allgemeine Newspaper reported that Spain is poised to ask for multi-billion pound credits. Mr Barroso and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank are united on the need for a rescue plan.

The looming bankruptcy of Spain, one of the foremost economies in Europe, poses far more of a threat to European unity and the euro project than Greece. Greece contributes 2.5 percent of GDP to Europe, Spain nearly 12 percent.

Yesterday’s report quoted German government sources saying: ‘We will lead discussions this week in Brussels concerning the crisis. It has intensified to the point that the states do not want to wait until the EU summit on Thursday in Brussels.”’

At the end of last month the credit rating agency Fitch downgraded Spain, triggering sharp falls on stock markets.

On Friday the administration in Madrid continued to insist no rescue package was necessary. But Greece said the same thing before it came close to disaster.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...-Portugal.html

[julie]

Onur is saying the contrary . Turkey are not keen on the eu and many regret joining. You are also generalising in your demographic analysis currency trader on the macedoniAn diaspora . I find it strange how u s a macedonians are pro e u and nato . Nothing like benefits for usa

[Currency Trader]

Also ct if it's so important for countries to go into the eu why do they have to wait so long.Look at how many countries are waiting what's the holdup?I don't know whether the eu has kept their promisses that when the countries joined they would get a package.I don't know whether they got it but hungary is a fine example they were promissed 30 billion euros for joining.Did they Get it????

I would think due process is long for countries to join. It's not something that you just send an invitation letter in the mail box, and violá you're a member. The 30 billion, I don't know.

[Currency Trader]

CT this one's for you:
Euro 'will be dead in five years'

The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey

These stories and survey's are not new. What I can tell you is that the Euro will most likely continue as the project has gotten too far to be dead. But more importantly, powerful players are supporting the Euro in a big way. It was only a week and a half ago that Euro were close to 1.50. Although, corrections will come and go for most highly liquid currencies.

[Currency Trader]

Onur is saying the contrary . Turkey are not keen on the eu

I go by the fact that Turkey has entered the negotiation process since 2005. That's enough for me to conclude that Turkey does want to join EU. Their due process is ongoing.

[Onur]

Turkey has already a strong economic structure from years of development with special trade agreements with EU, but even they wish to join. Obviously, there is something that they think will benefit them

I go by the fact that Turkey has entered the negotiation process since 2005. That's enough for me to conclude that Turkey does want to join EU. Their due process is ongoing.

Those "special trade agreements" are some kind of economical straightjacket, forcibly robed to you by the puppet bureaucrats of corporate giants of France, British and Germany like Tesco, Carrefour, Mediamarket, Mercedes, Bmw, Philips etc.

These agreements are part of the EU customs union. First, they make you sign 1000s of papers which contains regulations for literally everything you manufacture and produce, like the size of the tomatoes, shape of the wine cork, type of the machines in your factories etc. Guess who decides about all these stupid regulations? Ofc French, British and Germans because they got more voting power in EU parliament and ofc when they set up all of these, they think about the benefit of their own corporate giants but not your local Macedonian winemakers or Turkish farmers.

When you become a part of EU customs union, these corporate giants literally invades your country and they gain same benefits as your local companies with zero disadvantage because since you are part of the EU customs union, so you cannot charge any custom value to their products or force any extra terms for non-Macedonian companies to regulate the competition because EU big guns regulates your economy and you just have to obey.

As a result of customs union agreement, many small sized local companies of Turkey has gone bankrupt and these companies later bought by French, German companies. Only the strongest ones who are able to compete with EU corporate giants has survived. Does Macedonia has big enough companies who can enter competition with French, German corporate giants? If answer is no, then this means that French, German corporate giants will literally own your marketplace in few years of time and you will be destined to consume Italian olive oil, pasta, use German machinery, wear French textile and drink French wine.

Also, customs union kinda limits your exports within EU zone because you cannot sit down and sign a trade agreement with the countries outside EU. You are destined to obey the terms for non-EU trade regulations set by EU big guns again.



Besides that, Turkey`s negotiation process has completely stalled for two years but we cannot easily give up everything due to the arrangements has been done since 1960s. It may appear to you like we are dealing with EU since 2005 but in reality, Turkey signed several treaties since 1960s and both sides promised for integration of Turkey in the EU. In those times, EU was so different than todays and half of the current EU members had undemocratic communist regimes. We are also part of EU customs union since 1990s but for few years, nearly all politicians in Turkey trying to figure out the best way to get away from these EU agreements. For example, few months ago Turkey declared that we will reconsider the customs union agreement and even abolishing the treaty will be on the table if EU big guns refuses to meet our new terms after the harsh treatment we get from Sarkozy and Merkel.

[Bratot]

Everything that Macedonia can produce within a month, will be consumed on the Russian market for less than a day.

I'm even afraid we can't produce enough (of everything) to satisfy just Moscow with her 14 mln. population.

[George S.]

Ct what if the country satisfies the requirements allready why is it a LONG drawn out process.They either get in or they don't what is there to wait on.Look at turkey assuming that it wants to join they been doing it since 2005.The real reason is that greece vetoes turkey & doesn't want them in.One country can object for whatever stupid reason to prevent another from joining.Why can't the eu tell greece to behave.Turkey is a democratic country.I just cannot accept the way things are turning out especially to macedonia.
Whose fault is it that they greece invaded macedonia in 1913 on the pretext of liberating it & now can object to the real macedonians getting in the eu.Makes a mockery of the whole system of things.Macedonia satisfies & exceeds all basic entrance needs.Can the eu stipulate additional nonsensical requirements & force macedonia to join the eu by changing their name.How can our name be a requirement to enter the eu.
Can i explain that macedonia is a country & greeces northern province is called macedonia.How can a country 's name & a province name be a cause for concern.Also greece's power of veto is a stupid reason to block macedonia no other reason to stop it joining the eu.THe eu is siding with the black sheep of europe Greece who is 10 times more powerful than macedonia.Greece has nothing to fear from macedonia.
CT i'm in full agreement with the bratot macedonia is so small in contribution in the scheme of things that it would not matter to the eu oneway or the other.Macedonia has allready a market with the diaspora to sell their produce through marco polo etcPiperki,kromid,cirene,etc.
Macedonia had an existing market for it's tobacco products with china until they were banned.Apparently macedonian tobacco is one of the best.

[Onur]

Excellent speech by the British MEP Daniel Hannan;

YouTube - ‪Daniel Hannan - Germany no longer needs Europe‬‏

[George S.]

ct you said turkey doesn't want to join the eu.It does want to join but the greeks are vetoing it everystep of the way.Perhaps it should refuse to join & make it's way in the world.

[Pelister]

I go by the fact that Turkey has entered the negotiation process since 2005. That's enough for me to conclude that Turkey does want to join EU. Their due process is ongoing.

Turkey isn't using their political existence as leverage, and the E>U are not asking them to.

Clearly, member states of the E.U are going bankrupt, which proves once again that simply throwing money at a state doesn't mean people are better off.

You can talk it up as much you like - but there is no 'economic' benefit of joining the E.U under any circumstances. I've said it before, the price of basic goods - bread, milk, meat ...etc, will RISE. It will not create any significant new jobs, leaving Macedonians worse off.

A better question, a more relevent question and one that goes to the heart of our existence, is

Why won't the E.U recognise us?

Removing this all important question also removes the all important context - from the question at the top of this thread. The only Macedonians dealing in that kind of mischief, which we have seen over the last few years, are the Metovisti.

[Currency Trader]

ct you said turkey doesn't want to join the eu..

That's incorrect - I've said Turkey does want to join.

[Currency Trader]

CT said

I go by the fact that Turkey has entered the negotiation process since 2005. That's enough for me to conclude that Turkey does want to join EU. Their due process is ongoing.

Pelister said

Turkey isn't using their political existence as leverage, and the E.U are not asking them to.

Regardless, Turkey seeking to join EU illustrates the importance of EU’s economic market. They would not join if they did NOT see any benefits for them.


_____________


Pelister said:

Clearly, member states of the E.U are going bankrupt, which proves once again that simply throwing money at a state doesn't mean people are better off.

You poor knowledge limits your thinking. Member states or not, fiscal mismanagement will or could force ANY country into financial distress. Secondly, throwing money to a state does not mean the country will be worse off when applied to certain conditions and rules. It’s all about fiscal discipline and responsible governance. However, if a country misbehaves, then that should lead to consequences.

Anything else you're sleepless about?

________________


Pelister said:

there is no 'economic' benefit of joining the E.U under any circumstances

It has been asked of you for perhaps 5-6 weeks now, to support your claims with some empirical research – So far, supporting your arguments with empirical research is totally absent. You can either join the group of individuals who make claims without any empirical support, or you can engage yourself with those who use research to support their arguments.

So do you have empirical research to support your claims?


__________


Pelister said:

I've said it before, the price of basic goods - bread, milk, meat ...etc, will RISE. It will not create any significant new jobs

You’ve said many things without any empirical evidence that prices of all “things” will rise if they join EU. Secondly, I’d like to see the empirical support for your claim that should prices for basic goods rise, it will NOT create any significant new jobs. Of course, it all depends on your definition of what “significant new jobs” means.

Third, Macedonian inflation has been at very low levels relative to neighboring countries. That in itself could mean weak competition – Hardly any good for the country - As job creation picks up, or FDI picks up, prices could go up which is not bad given that there is room for it.

[Makedonska_Kafana]

Member states or not, fiscal mismanagement will or could force ANY country into financial distress. Secondly, throwing money to a state does not mean the country will be worse off when applied to certain conditions and rules. It’s all about fiscal discipline and responsible governance. However, if a country misbehaves, then that should lead to consequences.

Exactly, why a country like Macedonia has no business joining the EU. Self centered amateur politicians are very dangerous people. We're talking about 2,000,000 citizens or less then half the size of the CITY of Toronto.

Invest in Macedonia's future and well being say NO to the EU.