People on the ground are saying just about every single Albanian living in their village/town went out and voted, they know them all by name (this is in small towns, which are predominantly Albanian), yet the voter turnout for that particular voting station would suggest just over half voted.
Macedonia & Greece: Name Issue
Collapse
X
-
I'm not sure how you can say the boycott was ineffective or not successful, looking at the numbers in every single voting station, not just aggregated by electorate (yep, its a big spreadsheet) and comparing that to all previous elections, this boycott was a huge success, for its intended singular purpose. It would also indicate a massive loss by SDSM in the next elections.
Comment
-
-
The following EU propaganda piece and fake news article could easily belong in the 'EU/US Double Standards' thread. The article is titled Analysis of the Macedonian Referendum: The Majority Clearly Says “Yes”.
Here's a few excerpts from the article. Notice the obvious theme throughout that tries to convince readers that the referendum was in fact successful:
In Sunday’s consultative referendum, the Macedonian population was asked three interconnected questions: “Are you for an EU and NATO membership by accepting the agreement between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece?” with 91.61% of votes cast for and 5.64% against. The voter turnout of 36.87% was clearly under the symbolic quorum of 50%, which essentially means that the agreement’s opponents boycotted it. The quorum assumes that 1.8 million voters registered inside the country and outside it could have cast their votes. This number, however, is outdated and distorted, suggesting that indeed 50% of Macedonians eligible to vote and residing in the country voted on the referendum with a “yes”.The movement (#bojkotiram), has for months publicly called upon the population to boycott the referendum, which is democratically problematic and strategically unwise.Now populist and nationalist forces are cheering on a Pyrrhic victory – a missed threshold in a consultative referendum based on outdated voter lists, which deters the efforts of the government and civil society to lead the country into the European Union. It is also a slap in the face 670,000 people who did vote and ignores that their votes must count, even if many citizens (I think what he's having trouble saying is MOST citizens) have not used their right to vote.
The referendum in Macedonia has neither failed nor was it successful. Those who voted, voted for the agreement with Greece – and therefore membership in NATO and the EU. Opponents of the agreement boycotted the referendum. In Sunday’s consultative referendum, the Macedonian population was asked three interconnected questions: “Are you...
Comment
-
-
Originally posted by vicsinad View Post...Still, it's a fiction to suggest that most of those who didn't vote were against the deal. You can't convince me that the 50% of Albanians who stayed home did so because they were disgusted with the name change...You also can't ignore that the voter rolls are more likely to be closer to 1.5 million than 1.8 million...
Originally posted by vicsinad View Post...There were even interviews of Macedonians on the day of the referendum being asked why they didn't vote; some said they supported the agreement but just had other things to do that day...
Originally posted by vicsinad View Post...To me, this means that it is likely that probably half (or more) of Macedonia's citizens actually do support the name change agreement. That this reality was not reflected in the September 30 vote may be a legal and technical win, but it certainly does not show promise for Macedonia's future as 'Macedonia'...
Originally posted by vicsinad View Post...The government is going to push forward. The boycott movement succeeded in the legal/technical battle for the referendum, but there is no (known) strategy/plan to win the war. How to deal with DPNE members who might switch sides? How to deal with snap elections, if they come? How to deal with Ivanov's departure next year?...Last edited by Phoenix; 10-13-2018, 01:36 AM.
Comment
-
-
Originally posted by Phoenix View PostI'm tipping that those shiptari (the 50% that didn't vote) stayed home because 'home' is somewhere in Kosovo, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden and some even buried six feet under...and that is precisely why they avoid a census like the plague...
I wouldn't take that as unequivocal support of the agreement in its entirety...this is the other point about the referendum question being deliberately ambiguous in order to maximise acceptance...my personal views are that the overwhelming majority of Macedonians are in favour of both EU and NATO membership but not the name change...Zaev and his handlers masterfully crafted an illegal referendum question that consisted of 3 seperate questions that were ultimately tied to accepting the Prespa agreement...then we had the constant procession of European and US political heavyweights encouraging Macedonians to accept this nonsense because it was the last chance to do a deal...under that sort of ambiguity, coercion and Zaev's strategy of disingenuousness, no wonder people are making various excuses for not voting, especially in Macedonia where not to follow the party line has other negative social implications...
I think more than 50% (a lot more) support EU and NATO membership but I don't see the same numbers supporting the name change, if they did, they would have voted in significantly greater numbers.
The 'boycott' movement has complicated what was a straight forward political process as imagined by Zaev and his western puppet masters...Zaev and Co believed they would sell this turd to the citizens in a heartbeat, therefore making their own jobs easier in passing it through parliament, with less play on their collective conscience, they could always argue it was the will of the people...now the referendum is technically null and void but Zaev continues to seek bipartisan support to push it through parliament and share the treason equally with his political enemies but he might not get it his own way...
Let's make a few assumptions. Let's assume all Albanians that live in Macedonia voted and that those other 50% (200,000 +/-) Albanians no longer live in Macedonia (since 2002 census). Let's also assume 100,000 Macedonians left Macedonia since that time (number is probably higher). That brings total voter roll down to 1.5 million people. The referendum would have then had a 45% voter turn out with about 43% in favor. I don't think it would be that hard to find 7% more Macedonians that would've voted yes. Even if you can't find 7%, the number of citizens who would've voted yes is close to 50%. If we further assume another 100,000 Macedonians left, we're looking at a 48% voter turnout.
It doesn't matter how you play the numbers. The country (those who live there) is roughly split evenly on this issue. Most of those who voted yes also don't want to change the name; those very same people, however, believe that's the sacrifice they have to make to get into EU/NATO.
It's an unfortunate truth.
Comment
-
-
Vicsinad, on those assumptions and numbers, that would mean ~300k Albanians voted in the referendum.
That would mean the remaining 300k who voted are Macedonians, Vlachs, Turks, Bosnaks, Serbs, etc.
Or, 200k-250k ethnic Macedonians voted in the referendum.
Based on your assumption of 300k less than the actual electoral list, that would put the ethnic Macedonian population at just below 1.2M, or 1M adults.
So 75% of the ethnic Macedonians did not vote in the referendum.
Comment
-
-
In fact playing all the numbers out, the one thing that I see changed politically after the referendum, is that enough Albanians were activated and encouraged to vote that it is possible, for the first time, that the combined Albanian vote (Albanian bloc) is now the 2nd largest vote, where previous in terms of voting population it has generally been VMRO-DPMME, then SDSM, then the Albanian bloc. Now it looks like it is VMRO-DPMNE, then the Albanian bloc, then SDSM.
Comment
-
-
Originally posted by Rogi View PostVicsinad, on those assumptions and numbers, that would mean ~300k Albanians voted in the referendum.
That would mean the remaining 300k who voted are Macedonians, Vlachs, Turks, Bosnaks, Serbs, etc.
Or, 200k-250k ethnic Macedonians voted in the referendum.
Based on your assumption of 300k less than the actual electoral list, that would put the ethnic Macedonian population at just below 1.2M, or 1M adults.
So 75% of the ethnic Macedonians did not vote in the referendum.
In fact playing all the numbers out, the one thing that I see changed politically after the referendum, is that enough Albanians were activated and encouraged to vote that it is possible, for the first time, that the combined Albanian vote (Albanian bloc) is now the 2nd largest vote, where previous in terms of voting population it has generally been VMRO-DPMME, then SDSM, then the Albanian bloc. Now it looks like it is VMRO-DPMNE, then the Albanian bloc, then SDSM.
I'm not so sure that SDS lost enough to be smaller than the combined Albanian vote. And I'm not so sure DPNE gained much more. With the rise of Levica and Edinstvena, I think the next elections may definitely shake things up.
Comment
-
-
Originally posted by Spirit View PostRead what this clown Sasko Lazarov has had to say
Here is the link
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/voic...82786-Oct2018/
Disgusting, especially for an Irish journal to journal to even publish something so opposed to sovereignty.Risto the Great
MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
"Holding my breath for the revolution."
Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com
Comment
-
-
Originally posted by vicsinad View PostMost ethnic Macedonians are clearly against this. But I believe there are enough for it that make the country roughly divided. I would venture to say -- given Macedonia's more likely voter roll list of 1.5 or 1.6 million -- that at least 45% of citizens support the referendum.
If this is the case, then it means DPNE may again have to try to form a coalition with the Albanian block if it wins the next election. Which means DPNE will probably have to give a little on the Tirana Platform.
I'm not so sure that SDS lost enough to be smaller than the combined Albanian vote. And I'm not so sure DPNE gained much more. With the rise of Levica and Edinstvena, I think the next elections may definitely shake things up.
If elections are held in November or December, might be difficult for the Albanian parties organizing their voting buses from Western Europe to make the trek.
If early elections are called and they're either late 2018 or Early 2019, be sure that DUI and the other Albanian parties from Macedonia will be dead set against early elections.
The above factor has been one of the biggest reasons why a census has not occurred. The Albanians have always demanded that they want the census to be roughly around the time (Summer) when their diaspora voters are in the country enjoying their Vikendici. It was for this primary reason a census date could not be reached with DPNE.Last edited by VMRO; 10-15-2018, 12:56 AM.Verata vo Mislite, VMRO vo dushata, Makedonia vo Srceto.
Vnatreshna Makedonska Revolucionerna Organizacija.
Comment
-
-
Macedonians outside of parliament protesting against the identity change. A forgone conclusion.Last edited by Pelagonija; 10-15-2018, 04:25 AM.
Comment
-
-
If it happens and the people of Macedonia don't revolt, then they got what they wanted or deserved. Simple really.Last edited by Risto the Great; 10-15-2018, 03:48 PM.Risto the Great
MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
"Holding my breath for the revolution."
Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com
Comment
-
-
Here we are many months after this thing began and we still don't know for sure where the people stand on this agreement/issue.
The people I know seem split roughly 50/50 on the matter
Yet of the people I know almost no one actually voted, even those who were openly in support of it
I know quite a few people who claim they are actively trying to work against the implementation of this.
Then you have pictures like the one above and it seems no one cares.
Almost every thing I know thus far is contradictory, and I find it impossible to create any baseline of fact and certainty to work off of.
A lot of people are against this, yet there is no identifiable movement or plan to stop it.
A lot of people are for it yet a lot of them were too ashamed to go and actually vote for it.
We are in a situation where all sides of this are avoiding actively taking responsibility for their positions contributing to a definite outcome.
The reasons I am personally pessimistic about this is because I know quite a bit more of the populace was willing to accept this than actually voted for it. Because they are too ashamed to really stand up and be counted I feel this group is an unpredictable factor that prefers to see this go through in the matter that it is so they can wash their hands of the matter.
You have the political opposition that is clearly playing both sides of this and has been worryingly silent on the matter.
The opposition among the people seems unable or unwilling to take their opposition to the level required to really bring this to an end.
Frankly the only certainty in this whole mess is Zaev. It is an undeniable fact that he is willing to utilize an means necessary to make sure that this happens. That should be the most worrying part. That the only people that have a definite goal are the very people we need to fail.
Knowing Macedonians the way I do, I refuse to draw certain conclusions from the referendum/boycott. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the reason for the low turnout and yet subsequent timidness to actually stop this is a direct result of people kind of wanting this to happen but keep the blood on Zaev's hands for the sake of maintaining some screwed up sense of dignity.
We have seen much bigger reactions for much lesser reasons, how else does one explain the deafening silence in the face of Zaev's unyielding actions?
Something just doesn't sit right with me about the way this is unfolding.
Comment
-
Comment