Is Macedonia Important?

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  • Vangelovski
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2008
    • 8533

    Is Macedonia Important?

    So many people on here getting excited about possible pipeline wars between Russia and the West (forgetting that its in Western Europe's interest to build more pipelines from Russia in order to minimise shortages due to ongoing Russian-Ukrainian disputes).

    And indeed there may be something to it. But we really shouldn't over play the reality. Decades of Albanian separatism versus the sniff of a pipeline and a good conspiracy theory? I think the latest trouble has more to do with the former than the latter.

    Just a reminder of the European/Russian gas pipeline network and how important Macedonia really is(n't) in the greater scheme of things:

    If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

    The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams
  • Vangelovski
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2008
    • 8533

    #2
    This most ridiculous thing I've read today:

    Moscow suspects the U.S. and Europe, opposed to its plans to supply energy to Europe, is fomenting unrest in a bid to change the Russia-friendly regime of Gruevski and scuttle the pipeline.


    This is the quality of thinking coming out of the East these days. According to Lutovska (and many Russians by the way), Europe is opposed to Russia selling it gas. If they were, why on earth would they buy it? Is it because Europe is not opposed to Russia selling it gas?

    According to Lutovska (and many Russians), Europe is trying to stop Russia from building pipelines to Europe so that the Russians can't sell Russian gas to Europe. And yet Europe keeps buying it. Sounds like Europe doesn't know what it wants...or, Russians aren't making any sense. Maybe its just Lutovska.
    Last edited by Vangelovski; 05-21-2015, 01:16 AM.
    If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

    The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

    Comment

    • sydney
      Member
      • Sep 2008
      • 390

      #3
      Fair point.

      Let's push the gas pipeline to the side and suggest that creating a Greater Albania is the leading factor behind recent events in Macedonia. Why is the international community so supportive of this idea? What are the gains?

      I still contend that the Albanian - without international support and intervention - would not realise his dreams for a Greater Albania (inside Macedonia) and any armed action (inside Macedonia) would be crushed by Macedonia and its forces.

      Comment

      • Tomche Makedonche
        Senior Member
        • Oct 2011
        • 1123

        #4
        Perhaps also having a brief look into why:

        - the Turkish stream proposal has even come into existence;
        - the progress of the pipeline its meant to replace and its purpose (including why it all of a sudden became important);
        - the geography of the area including the proposed routes;
        - the estimate cost of the new proposal compared with the estimated cost of the one its meant to replace (as well as the effects of any trade embargoes in place against the financiers); and
        - the timeframes involved for commencement and overall completion of these proposed projects;

        As well as:
        - examining all the stakeholders and interested parties involved with the proposed routes of both pipelines including their allegiances and individual interests; and
        - examining any competing proposals and their progress;

        as these factors may assist in weighing up how important the actual political landscape of Macedonia is right at this moment in the big scheme of things
        Last edited by Tomche Makedonche; 05-21-2015, 01:29 AM.
        “There’s a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you can’t take part, you can’t even passively take part, and you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus and you’ve got to make it stop, and you’ve got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you’re free, the machine will be prevented from working at all” - Mario Savio

        Comment

        • Vangelovski
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2008
          • 8533

          #5
          Originally posted by sydney View Post
          I still contend that the Albanian - without international support and intervention - would not realise his dreams for a Greater Albania (inside Macedonia) and any armed action (inside Macedonia) would be crushed by Macedonia and its forces.
          They might not be able to achieve a greater Albania without international assistance, but that does not mean they won't try. But that is not necessarily what they might be aiming for. They might just be looking for political independence within Macedonia (i.e. federation) or an independent "Ilirida".

          I don't think Macedonian security forces would be able to conclusively defeat an armed Albanian force. Forget who may or may not have helped the Albanians in 2001. Macedonian security forces did not have the capability to fight anyone. While the military/police have received a great deal of training and equipment since then, I don't think they are up to it now either.

          The Macedonians also now have the problem of not being in control of the state - they share that control with the Albanians. Further, the military and police are 20% to 25% Albanian. Depending on the area (such as Western Macedonia), police units are close to 100% Albanian. Macedonia's 'elite' units (they're not exactly up there with the best) are ethnically mixed. If war were to break out, both the military and police would end up in chaos while Albanians and Macedonian break ranks and units (chain of command and weapons stocks) divide down their ethnic lines. We'd see a repeat of the chaos within the security forces that ensued in Croatia and Bosnia during the 90's. While some may dismiss this reality as unimportant, it would drive Macedonia's defence into chaos.
          If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

          The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

          Comment

          • Vangelovski
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2008
            • 8533

            #6
            Originally posted by Tomche Makedonche View Post
            Perhaps also having a brief look into why:

            - the Turkish stream proposal has even come into existence;
            - the progress of the pipeline its meant to replace and its purpose (including why it all of a sudden became important);
            - the geography of the area including the proposed routes;
            - the estimate cost of the new proposal compared with the estimated cost of the one its meant to replace (as well as the effects of any trade embargoes in place against the financiers); and
            - the timeframes involved for commencement and overall completion of these proposed projects;

            As well as:
            - examining all the stakeholders and interested parties involved with the proposed routes of both pipelines including their allegiances and individual interests; and
            - examining any competing proposals and their progress;

            as these factors may assist in weighing up how important the actual political landscape of Macedonia is right at this moment in the big scheme of things
            Sounds like it would make an interesting thesis topic
            If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

            The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

            Comment

            • George S.
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2009
              • 10116

              #7
              Whether Macedonia benefits out of the gas pipe is anyone's guess.But I think they got very little choice in the decision making business they were probably ordered to allow the pipeline.Maybe the politicians as a result can line their pockets.It seems to be hush your mouth and do as your told.Of course America doesn't want this to go on without their input.Its not in their interest .Also their finger is not in the pie.They wouldn't want Russia to rake in all the benefits.Particularly the large oil deposits they found in the Russian federation states.I don't think America has any say so.Can anyone include Macedonia in a serious talk about their stake in all this apart of the pipeline going into their territory.?Tom and others are making some good points and asking the right questions.
              "Ido not want an uprising of people that would leave me at the first failure, I want revolution with citizens able to bear all the temptations to a prolonged struggle, what, because of the fierce political conditions, will be our guide or cattle to the slaughterhouse"
              GOTSE DELCEV

              Comment

              • Gocka
                Senior Member
                • Dec 2012
                • 2306

                #8
                I agree that Macedonia is not important, I've said that all along. If Russia really want to build another pipeline I'm sure it will and I'm sure Macedonia doesn't have to be a part of it either.

                I don't agree with eh statement that Europe wants Russian gas.Given the ever growing divide between Russia and the west, a few Western leaders have came out previously and said that Western Europe needs to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. The last thing Western Europe wants is to end up dependent on Russia for a key energy source that can be shut off with the turn of a valve. They keep buying it because currently there is not enough supply from other sources to meed demand, not because they really want to.

                Having said all that I still contend that if the west really wanted Macedonia out of the pipeline they would have just sent some money. Going through all the trouble to plan and wage a "revolution" is more time consuming and costly than just going to your nearest corrupt Macedonia leader and bribing them.

                The one thing that gives a little bit of credibility to the theory that this is all related to a pipeline is the fact that we have had attempted revolutions in 4 countries who are key to the pipeline. If Hungary went through one, and the government claimed it was supported externally, they are the last country in the Pipeline I believe and would feed Western Europe. You had the same type of "revolution" and wire tapping scandal in Turkey, again the government claimed it was funded from outside. Turkey is essentially the beginning of the pipeline, it is how the pipeline would get to Europe without going through Ukraine. Then you had trouble in Bulgaria who was supposed to be the original outlet to Europe, I don't know if anyone remembers or even knew, but there was also massive protests and riots in Bulgaria last year, they weren't well covered but were very similar to those in Macedonia. Bulgaria eventually pulled out of the pipeline, and the "revolution" ended. Then finally the pipeline is diverted to Macedonia and all of a sudden we have a wire tapping scandal and "revolution". Call it conspiracy call it coincidence, but it is all a bit to convenient that everyone who seems to get involved with this pipeline faces a small revolution attempt. Without Macedonia I'm not sure where the pipeline would go from.

                On the flip side its not like Turkey, Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Hungary are paradise, so its not stretch to say all the troubles there were natural.

                It could be though that the wiretapping scandal was related to the pipeline, but the Albanians just saw an opportunity and no one really knew that they would do what they did. Both events don't have to originate from the same source. We know that SDSM is receiving quite a bit of support from western NGO's.

                A lot of this is speculative but at this point I don' think anyone really knows what the hell is going on. One thing I'm sure of is that Albanian terrorists in Macedonia don't need a push from anyone, they are more then capable and willing to wage war in Macedonia and its something we have all talked about way before there was ever a pipeline. I do though think that the wire tapping scandal is brought on by the west, only because of the fact that 20,000 people were "wire tapped" and some how all the recordings are of government officials being corrupt. They were clearly spied on.

                Comment

                • Vangelovski
                  Senior Member
                  • Sep 2008
                  • 8533

                  #9
                  This isn't Macedonia's first wire taping scandal - there have been others, they just didn't really make the news. To look at this one outside of its context and link it to the Turkish Stream pipeline is a longbow in my view. Nor do I think the phone taps have been (at least completely) concocted. Its been an open secret for decades, not something that came about with Zaev's 'bombs'.

                  I know its popular to portray the 'coloured' revolutions as 'western' backed, and to some degree they may be, but to say they are a product of the US/Europe (and I'm not saying that you say this Gocka) is just too far-fetched. Such theories diminish the intelligence and capacity of millions of people to the level of goldfish.

                  Europe does buy Russian gas because it does not have an alternative (for the most part). Wanting to reduce their reliance on Russian gas does not mean they would automatically try to stop Russian pipelines. If you step away from the pro-Russian/pro-European/American passions, why would Europe stop a Russian pipeline? Let them spend billions building it, secure your energy supply and when you no longer need Russian gas, just stop buying it. Its a double win for Europe. No need to go to all the trouble playing Balkan Rambo. But then one has to ask, what is the alternative to Russian gas? Europe would much rather Russian gas than no gas, and this fact is borne out in the amount they buy, year after year. Why they would jeopardise their own supplies does not make sense to me.

                  I can understand (to an extent) the US wanting different pipelines - particularly from fields in which US companies have a stake, but how many of them are there really? I'd say much less than popular belief. What the US could do is build trans-Atlantic pipelines to start selling their shale gas and oil (which will turn the US into a net exporter in the coming years), but such a project may not even be possible.
                  If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

                  The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

                  Comment

                  • Macedonian
                    Junior Member
                    • Oct 2013
                    • 36

                    #10
                    The 'coloured-revolutions' aren't just 'Western-backed' but are 'backed' by whoever has a vested interest in seeing them come about and mature into fruition, according to the 'end game', whatever the desired goal may be. The instability as a direct result serves the purposes of weakening the non-compliant person/s in 'political' power, preventing a united front, ensuring minimal economic growth via weakening of national institutions and private capital investment (keeping populations in 'survival mode' as opposed to growth/prosperity) and other such machinations. The bulwark of forces behind these revolutions are definitely 'western-backed' paired with local stakeholders toward a somewhat 'unified goal' on multiple levels.

                    It is simply not viable for the US to provide 'shale' oil/gas because it is greatly a fallacy and does not produce near enough volume at a competitive extraction price point to on-sell it across the Atlantic. The sheer logistical challenges being met of said pipeline are also nothing but a pipe dream. There are also insufficient tankers at present to service the demand. 'Peak' has already been reached in the US. By 2020 it will not be viable for local let alone foreign markets.

                    The supplies to Europe from Russia are at a comfortable price with far less capital expenditure required to be invested into the delivery platform. The demand in Europe is also growing and not reducing. The benefits to European and Russian interests are key and are contradictory to what benefits the US.

                    On another level, Macedonia is extremely important. Macedonia has always been important from the days of P2 and A3. A 'crossroad' is always important as it is a 'choke point'. Coupled with the fact that Macedonia is the original linguistic, religious and cultural hegemon of half of Europe and can re-evolve into the 'binding glue' of Eastern European nations/cultures, which conflicts with the BS put out by the 'western pillars of democratic society'. On a number of levels, we are RIDICULOUSLY important. Sure we don't have the numbers or the political sway at this point in history, but numbers are not the only resource at hand.

                    We are important! If not then why bother?

                    Comment

                    • George S.
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2009
                      • 10116

                      #11
                      as much as we want to matter the eu doesn't care and imposes extra conditions on our membership application when macedonia fullfills all requirements for normal membership to the eu.The same thing could be said of nato.Not only this but the eu has turned a blind eye to what has happened and is still happening to the macedonian people both in greece and bulgaria.Not to mention as well as in albania.The people are being suppressed ,their identity is suppressed.there is so much more why do we bother just in case there is a ray of hope .
                      "Ido not want an uprising of people that would leave me at the first failure, I want revolution with citizens able to bear all the temptations to a prolonged struggle, what, because of the fierce political conditions, will be our guide or cattle to the slaughterhouse"
                      GOTSE DELCEV

                      Comment

                      • Macedonian
                        Junior Member
                        • Oct 2013
                        • 36

                        #12
                        Indeed George, there is always hope. How many generations are supposed to pass by the time we turn it around? I heard some old tale a number of years back in stari kraj about a multi-generational curse placed upon us at the time of A3. After x amount of generations we would turn things around and days of sunshine would be upon the Macedonian people again. I don't mean to get all wishy-washy airey-fairey but just on that point of hope you mentioned...

                        Strategy was once something we were masters at...something we need to again re-master, perhaps now more than ever in our long, proud yet darkened history. Strategy along with action, thankfulness and self-pride. Forget any and everybody around us for a hand. We hold gold but view it as lead. Silly isn't it!

                        Comment

                        • Gocka
                          Senior Member
                          • Dec 2012
                          • 2306

                          #13
                          I tend to agree, people are not goldfish, this isn't the first wire tapping scandal, the colored revolutions are not created in the west. As with anything else though these problems aren't black and white.

                          The people protesting in Macedonia are not goldfish, they are there for their own reasons most of which they have every right to be there for. It is still possible to be used be someone without realizing your a being used. Macedonians aren't being tricked by the west into protesting, but they also may not realize how their protests are being portrayed, and against what backdrop. I do feel that all these revolutions have ended up bigger then they normally would have been had it not been for some type of outside help/interference. Is giving logistical and monetary support to an anti government group considered wrong? I think it is, other may think its justified. Personally I think its wrong to attempt to influence political outcomes in other nations, even though its naive I still think its wrong.

                          As for the gas: Europe cant just stop buying Russian gas, because any other alternative would be too expensive. Secondly countries don't buy gas, private companies do, short of making it illegal to buy gas from a certain source, companies will buy from who ever they get the best price from, which is always going to be Russia. Don't forget western Europe was opposed to Russian sanctions for this very reason, it as US pressure that got that ball rolling. I think it all has more to do with the US not wanting Russia to have more influence and bargaining power. American shale gas would be much more expensive than Russian gas, the US knows it cant just replace Russian gas. At the same time Western Europe is at Russia mercy. Europe needs more capacity and Russia can do it cheaper and faster than anyone else. I think the US just wants to stall that process until they can figure out a way to counter it, which currently I don't think there is a way.

                          Had it all not happened before I wouldn't give it an credit, I still don't think that the pipeline has anything to do with Albanians, but given the US track record i the last 50 years, in South America, in the Middle East, we know that they have been involved in regime changes, sometimes physically and without even hiding it. Given that track record I can't just dismiss it as a possibility.

                          The US and Russia have had this relationship for the last 60 plus years, its nothing new.

                          I think all the colored revolutions are natural but there scope is artificial. Do you really think Macedonians just woke up last week? I don't, do you think Zaev is as popular as its being made out, I don't. Do you think Zaev just happen to come upon a treasure trove of illegal conversations from his opposition, I don't. Is it an accident that western media favors Albanians, and Zaev, I don't.

                          I'm also not naive enough to think that a few billions people give a shit about what 1.1 million people might or might not do. Crossroads or not Macedonia cold disappear tomorrow if any larger power wanted it to.

                          Originally posted by Vangelovski View Post
                          This isn't Macedonia's first wire taping scandal - there have been others, they just didn't really make the news. To look at this one outside of its context and link it to the Turkish Stream pipeline is a longbow in my view. Nor do I think the phone taps have been (at least completely) concocted. Its been an open secret for decades, not something that came about with Zaev's 'bombs'.

                          I know its popular to portray the 'coloured' revolutions as 'western' backed, and to some degree they may be, but to say they are a product of the US/Europe (and I'm not saying that you say this Gocka) is just too far-fetched. Such theories diminish the intelligence and capacity of millions of people to the level of goldfish.

                          Europe does buy Russian gas because it does not have an alternative (for the most part). Wanting to reduce their reliance on Russian gas does not mean they would automatically try to stop Russian pipelines. If you step away from the pro-Russian/pro-European/American passions, why would Europe stop a Russian pipeline? Let them spend billions building it, secure your energy supply and when you no longer need Russian gas, just stop buying it. Its a double win for Europe. No need to go to all the trouble playing Balkan Rambo. But then one has to ask, what is the alternative to Russian gas? Europe would much rather Russian gas than no gas, and this fact is borne out in the amount they buy, year after year. Why they would jeopardise their own supplies does not make sense to me.

                          I can understand (to an extent) the US wanting different pipelines - particularly from fields in which US companies have a stake, but how many of them are there really? I'd say much less than popular belief. What the US could do is build trans-Atlantic pipelines to start selling their shale gas and oil (which will turn the US into a net exporter in the coming years), but such a project may not even be possible.

                          Comment

                          • Macedonian
                            Junior Member
                            • Oct 2013
                            • 36

                            #14
                            Of course if some larger power wanted it to it could 'disappear' but that is not what is wanted as there is no net benefit in that result at this stage in the Macedonian story. The expenditure of energy to achieve that is greater then the return. Whether or not Macedonia is there is inconsequential to larger powers. It's about regional crossroad control and the direct and indirect benefits of that control. Macedonian and Albanian nationalism are simply concepts which are utilized as tools in an arsenal of many more tools, that larger powers can choose to either support, or not, if and as when required. This is the way it has generally been over the last 2000 odd years. Nothing has been 'by chance'. The is always design. What we keep failing to do is design let alone implement.

                            Comment

                            • Vangelovski
                              Senior Member
                              • Sep 2008
                              • 8533

                              #15
                              I think we agree that its not really feasible for the US to sell its oil and gas to Europe (at least for the moment). Then why prevent Russian pipelines? Is it trying to hurt Russia or Western Europe? Without Russian gas, its Europe that will suffer. Russia can always divert its sales East, to Japan, South Korea, China and India. It does not have to sell it on to Europe (though this is probably most feasible considering the fields from which its coming from and the existing pipeline system).
                              If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

                              The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

                              Comment

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