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Carlin 03-14-2020 11:02 PM

COVID-19 Pandemic
[B]The Brutal Logic of Coronavirus[/B]
[I]The only way to defeat this pandemic is to approach it with the seriousness it deserves. It is time for a radical acceptance of reality.[/I]

[B]Why Are There So Many Cases in Italy?[/B]
[I]Italy has by far the largest number of novel coronavirus cases in Europe. But why? There are many reasons, and recognizing them could be vital for other countries around the world.[/I]

"[B]More than 10,100 people. That is how many people in Italy have been infected by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday.[/B] It is the highest number outside of China. And it is by far the most of any country in Europe.

By way of comparison, France has the second-highest number of cases in Europe, with around 1,700 and Germany is in fourth with 1,300, behind Spain. And there is another number that pops off the page: 631. That is the number of people in Italy who have died thus far. That isn't just the highest number in Europe by far in absolute terms, it calculates to a [B]death rate of 6 percent[/B], which is unusually high."

[B]What might our lives look like when Canada is in the full grip of COVID-19?[/B]

As if fear isn’t already in the air, if not in the grocery store lineups, then grim plans for a significant influenza pandemic in Canada are a jolt of panic infused with sobering reality of worst-case scenarios as COVID-19 continues its alarming spread.

[B]Stockpiling body bags, choosing a central place where people bring corpses of family members and identifying hockey and curling rinks cold enough to be temporary morgue sites are among the government’s planning guidelines.[/B]

The surge capacity of crematoriums, running out of coffins and church space for holding funerals and recruiting temporary grave diggers are all outlined in the [B]“Management of Mass Fatalities: Canadian Pandemic Influenza Preparedness,”[/B] a planning guideline prepared by the Public Health Agency of Canada in 2009.

“There are currently no plans to recommend mass burials or mass cremations. This would only be considered in the most extreme circumstances,” the guidelines reassuringly offer.

It warns of six months’ worth of deaths compressed into six weeks.

“Most crematoriums can handle about one body every 4 hours and could probably be run over 24 hours to cope with increased demand. Cremations have fewer resource requirements than burials and, where acceptable, this may be an expedient and efficient way of managing large numbers of deceased during a pandemic.

“Refrigerated trucks can generally hold 25-30 bodies without additional shelving.”

They are hard words to read.

It is the job of disaster planners to think about the unthinkable.

The scenarios they envision are the stuff of nightmares and end-times movies but, it stands to reason, having such plans are better than the alternative of not having them, while also hoping they are never needed.

[B]What is happening around the world and beginning across Canada makes this contagion of novel coronavirus the most worrisome health scare in generations.

Hope of containment has failed.[/B]

What was once an alarming but distant tragedy in China is now, in a slow-to-dawn suddenness most saw coming but didn’t accept, Canadian reality. Or at least the start of what is expected to become reality.

Many Canadians seem stuck in the stage of thinking the most important thing is to hoard toilet paper or else laugh at people hoarding toilet paper.

The reality, however, is sinking in.

As the virus jumps from country to country, each nation reacts in its own way. A mix of surprise and dark humour greeted the curtailment of national passions and deemed a doomsday sign: Iran cancelling public Friday prayers, an end to kissing in Italy, closing of pubs in Belgium, shuttering soccer in Spain, cancelling basketball in March in the United States, the end of Tim Hortons’ Roll-Up-The-Rim contest in Canada.

Each caused an awakening.

Perhaps the NHL suspending the hockey season was the shock that woke you up, or closing of schools; maybe it was U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech cancelling most travel from continental Europe or Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife, Sophie, testing positive for COVID-19.

Carlin 03-14-2020 11:08 PM

[B]Debar under quarantine after multiple cases of coronavirus[/B]

The situation in Debar and Centar Zupa is reportedly calm. The city and the surrounding rural areas were placed under a strict quarantine after half a dozen coronavirus cases were diagnosed. Nobody is allowed out, and only local residents are allowed in by police deployed at checkpoints on the main roads.

The Government informs that the area is well supplied with food, medicine and other necessities. Citizens are urged to remain at home and avoid any situations that could lead to spreading the virus.

Some 100 people from outside of the area are stuck in Debar Ė most of them construction or factory workers. They are staying with friends, relatives and in the few hotels.

Meanwhile one of the patients, a woman from Debar who was in Italy with her husband, was placed on artificial ventilation. Out of the 12 patients who have been diagnosed with the coronavirus so far, she has by far the worst symptoms.


Carlin 03-14-2020 11:48 PM

[B]Spaniards told to stay home, French nightlife closes down and Australia says overseas arrivals must go into isolation.[/B]

Spain and France have announced sweeping new restrictions on daily life in a bid to contain the coronavirus outbreaks in their countries, as the Philippines seals off Manila in the most aggressive response to the pandemic yet seen in Southeast Asia.


Australia's prime minister Scott Morrison says the country will require everyone arriving from overseas - Australians or nationals of other countries - to go through 14 days of self-isolation.

"We are going to have to get used to some changes in the way we live our lives," Prime Minister Scott Morrison told a press conference. The measure is due to come into effect from midnight on Sunday (1300 GMT).

Carlin 03-14-2020 11:55 PM

From "Science Matters: Let's Talk About COVID-19"



R0 is pronounced ďR naught.Ē Itís a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. Itís also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and havenít been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

Carlin 03-15-2020 12:43 AM

[B]How Italy spiraled from a perfectly healthy country to near collapse in 24 days as the coronavirus took hold[/B]


[B]This week, doctors in Italy have been forced to make choices that no one, least of all people who have taken an oath to protect lives, should face: Who lives and who dies?[/B]

As the country's coronavirus caseload has skyrocketed — more than 15,000 people have been infected and at least 1,000 have died — healthcare workers on the front lines are confronting a worst-case confluence of a contagious new virus, an aging population, and shortage of hospital beds.

[B]Doctors are now prioritizing young and mostly healthy COVID-19 patients because their chances of survival eclipse those of the elderly.[/B]

"We do not have free beds in intensive care units," Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy, told Time. Doctors, he added, must "make this horrible choice and decide who is going to survive and who is not going to survive … who is going to get a monitor, a respirator, and the attention they need."

The tragic triage is reminiscent of the choices made on a battlefield, and indeed, Italy is now at war.

[B]Coronavirus: 'Get prepared as soon as you can', says Italian doctor[/B]

Sky News speaks to a doctor in a hospital in Turin, Italy.
[B]Mar 14, 2020:[/B] "[U][B]We are expecting a surge in the coming days[/B][/U] and hope it will not reach the intensity of Lombardy... my suggestion is you get prepared as soon as you can."


Carlin 03-15-2020 01:54 AM


Phoenix 03-15-2020 03:23 AM


If R0 related to a posters ability to sensationalise and misinform you would have an R0 in the order of 100+

Choose not to be a toilet paper hoarder, doomsday prepper or the tin-foil hat community.

Be part of the group looking to solve the problem instead of perpetuating the fear and irrationality.

Just a couple of points...

- Italy has suffered mostly due to a couple of key factors -
1. Elderly demographic
2. Currently in the midst of a bad flu season

- Health professionals around the world are sometimes forced to make decisions regarding who lives and who dies depending on unique circumstances, whether that is in a field hospital in a war zone, or a paramedic treating multiple opioid overdoses with limited availability of a drug like Narcan/Naloxone
That's how it has been done for at least 2 centuries of the triage to highlight lines about doctors choosing - "who lives and who dies" is very irresponsible...

Carlin 03-15-2020 03:56 PM

What exactly is misinformation and an attempt to sensationalize?

Are the "draconian" measures many countries have already started to implement and enact an attempt to perpetuate fear and irrationality?

How is highlighting lines about doctors choosing "who lives and who dies" irresponsible? Whether or not it's been done for 2 centuries is irrelevant. Where in the world is the same triage system being applied to at this moment, and under which circumstances? This is what the health professionals in Italy are dealing with as we speak.

How is Italy being [I]in the midst of a bad flu season[/I] actually help solve the problem for Italian doctors? Italy today announced 368 new deaths, in the last 24 hours. Spain reports today deaths have jumped in a day to 288. One week ago, there were just 589 cases in total and 10 deaths in the country.

13 Coronavirus myths busted by science ([I]this article talks about R0 R-nought[/I]):

U of T and McMaster researchers at Sunnybrook Hospital isolate virus behind COVID-19:

Carlin 03-15-2020 04:13 PM

Here's more for the tin-foil hat community.


[SIZE="3"]Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program[/SIZE]


Live coverage:

Risto the Great 03-15-2020 04:49 PM

There goes my trip to Spain.
I’m wondering if it’s even wise to be going to the gym given the rapidly escalating problem.

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