Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Carlin]

"Please watch this detailed explanation from former CIA analyst Frank Snepp about how the newspapers and magazines you were taught to regard as mainstream and reliable have always eagerly served as disinformation megaphones for the CIA and the US Security State. That's still true."

https://mobile.twitter.com/Snowden/s...06899569377282
https://mobile.twitter.com/Snowden

[Carlin]

1) BREAKING: Russian official Kirill Stremousov dies in "car crash" in Kherson region

2) The city of Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be supplied and function — General Surovikin

[Carlin]

Moment Surovikin and Shoygu admit defeat in the Kherson direction and announce the withdrawal of troops:
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartransl...68333727424512

(The Ukrainian Army has captued Kalynivske in the Kherson region)

[Vangelovski]

Looks like Kherson is back in Ukrainian hands.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/russi...2-999759af02c5

[Risto the Great]

Interesting perspective:





‼️THIS EXPLAINS A _LOT_‼️ READ THINK SHARE ‼️

https://t.me/vdv_union
🔥Attacks on Ukraine's railroad and critical infrastructure prevent Russian oligarchs from delivering, Sivkov said.

The Ukrainian railway infrastructure has not yet been destroyed, because Russian, Ukrainian and Western oligarchs are interested in this, continuing to earn money together on business schemes that have not changed since the start of the NWO.

Konstantin Sivkov, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Troops, stated this on ORT.

According to Sivkov, Russian titanium is delivered to the West via Ukrainian railways, on which a number of industries, including the military, critically depend.

“Under the existing sanctions that everyone must comply with, there is only one “gray” communication that connects Russia and Europe. These are Ukrainian railways.

Russia produces 87% of the world's titanium. All this titanium used to go to the needs of the Soviet Union - submarines according to the American classification "Alpha", according to ours - "Lira" of the 705th project - these were boats made entirely of titanium hulls. 3.5 thousand tons of titanium. The Americans were shocked, because titanium is considered to be at the level of gold in terms of value.

After the destruction of our country by the thieves' nomenclature of the Soviet Union, titanium became “not needed” here, since there was an interest of the West, primarily the United States, to get this titanium. The whole titan went to the West.

They began to make aircraft wings from titanium, the Excalibur shells for the M777 cannon, which is used against us today, are made from our titanium. If titanium stops deliveries now, then all this will stop. This is worse than gas, because the construction of the latest combat aircraft depends on titanium, among other things.

Therefore, our oligarchy, the Ukrainian oligarchy and the West are objectively interested in ensuring that this railway communication runs smoothly,” Sivkov said.

The main (90%) volume of Western military and material assistance to the Kyiv regime, which lost over 70% of the weapons available on February 24, comes by rail from western Ukraine (Lviv), bordering Poland and Slovakia.

Vulnerabilities - three bridge crossings within the range of tactical missiles and airborne forces, which can be destroyed by three pinpoint strikes at known coordinates. In this case, communications that support the viability and military stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the regime as a whole will be destroyed with the prospect of restoration at least a month or two.

Alternative trucking by road does not compensate for the logistical disaster. However, this does not happen, just as many enterprises of the basic economic and defense structure controlled by Kyiv avoid missile and bomb raids.

Export goods and products manufactured at the enterprises of Ukrainian oligarchs and their Russian partners are also exported along the mentioned railway routes in the opposite direction, to the west. After all, after the blockade of air communications, maritime transport and international motor transport, the railway, which was removed from the limits of Western sanctions, remained the only logistical export-import communicator.

Rear Admiral John Kirby, a spokesman for the Pentagon, said that, contrary to the logic of hostilities, US intelligence did not record a single attempt by the Russian Armed Forces and the LDNR by any means to block the flow of American and European weapons coming to the disposal of the front-line units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from late February to mid-April.

Probably, this explains the "indistinct" position of the majority of the Russian oligarchy and many of the most influential figures in the Russian Forbes list in relation to the US and EU hybrid aggression against Russia, including its most sensitive component - the fighting in Ukraine, and this also explains the strange course of the special operation.

The country must know its "heroes"...

[Vangelovski]

Interesting story, and there might be some truth to it, but some facts:

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

Russia produces 87% of the world's titanium.

Russia actually only produces about 16% of the worlds titanium.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mc...1-titanium.pdf

The US imports 57% of its titanium from Africa and another 35% from Australia. Only 7% come from Ukraine and Russia doesn't even make the list.
https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/com...roduct/261400#

The main (90%) volume of Western military and material assistance to the Kyiv regime, which lost over 70% of the weapons available on February 24, comes by rail from western Ukraine (Lviv), bordering Poland and Slovakia.

Vulnerabilities - three bridge crossings within the range of tactical missiles and airborne forces, which can be destroyed by three pinpoint strikes at known coordinates. In this case, communications that support the viability and military stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the regime as a whole will be destroyed with the prospect of restoration at least a month or two.

Ukraine has 21 border crossings with NATO countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Only 5 are bridge crossings, the rest are land. This does not include river ports and airlift.

Most of these border crossings are based on border towns. Bombing them would involve bombing a NATO country. This is the reason the Russians don't hit them. Even if a border crossing was only a bridge over a river, half of that bridge belongs to a NATO country.

Alternative trucking by road does not compensate for the logistical disaster.

Of course it does. Trucking runs the Australian economy, not rail and we're a continent the size of Europe. NATO weapons deliveries to Ukraine are not based on rail alone. They are also trucked by road and airlited.
https://theconversation.com/how-weap...ng%20Poland%2C

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Looks like Kherson is back in Ukrainian hands.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/russi...2-999759af02c5

The true balance of which side is in control of this situation will be revealed over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Firstly, it’s a waiting game for winter to set in and for the ground to freeze, so movement of heavy equipment is made easier.

Secondly, some +200K Russian reservists need to be fully incorporated into new units. When this happens the Russian side will not be at the 1:3 disadvantage they were at in the beginning of this conflict.
In 4 - 6 weeks time the Russian side will be fighting on comparable manpower terms for the first time in 10 months and an overwhelming advantage in heavy weaponry.

The Ukrainian side has still only managed very small and insignificant battlefield victories that have served short term morale wins for their domestic audience at a time when the Russians were in a state of flux.
Some soldiers had left battle for R&R, some had left after serving their contracted term, maneuvering of heavy equipment became difficult in the period before the winter freeze.

Many of these conditions at this time of the year has made it briefly difficult for the Russians to resupply their men and to adequately defend a frontline that is stretched for over 1000 km.

These are Ukraines victories, throwing everything they have at holes in the Russian frontline, a front that is defended by some 4 to 5 soldiers per km…at Kherson the Russian contingent could not easily be resupplied and with their backs to the river they were in danger of being surrounded and wiped out - land is easily conceded and temporarily lost but it can just as easily be retaken, on the other hand manpower if lost is lost forever.

Kherson was a tactical Russian withdrawal not a Ukrainian victory nor the beginnings of a deep Ukrainian counter offensive to win back lost territories and it’s certainly no indication of Russian weakness or ineptitude.

Once the ground freezes and all Russian reservists are incorporated into their units the game changes for good and it will be very ugly for Ukraine.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

The true balance of which side is in control of this situation will be revealed over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

I think it's a little late for that. If the Russians had any intention (i.e., capacity) to return, they would not have blown the Antonivsky Bridge. They would not have wasted time and resources they don't have to spare setting up defensive lines on the East bank of the Dnipro.

Firstly, it’s a waiting game for winter to set in and for the ground to freeze, so movement of heavy equipment is made easier.

No one's moving tanks and artillery over a frozen river, if it even freezes.

at Kherson the Russian contingent could not easily be resupplied and with their backs to the river they were in danger of being surrounded and wiped out

That's what getting your ass kicked is - losing men and equipment, not having the ability to resupply and being in danger of being surrounded and wiped out.

Kherson was a tactical Russian withdrawal not a Ukrainian victory nor the beginnings of a deep Ukrainian counter offensive to win back lost territories and it’s certainly no indication of Russian weakness or ineptitude.

Kiev was a "tactical withdrawal". Chernihiv and Sumy were "tactical withdrawals". The entire northern front was a "tactical withdrawal". Kharkiv was a "tactical withdrawal". Kherson was a "tactical withdrawal". Russia has been "tactically withdrawing" for the past 7.5 months and has "tactically withdrawn" from 50% of all the territory it captured during its initial attack.

Armies only "tactically withdraw" when their getting their arse's kicked. It's called defeat. Politicians spinning a narrative call it a "tactical withdrawal".

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

I think it's a little late for that. If the Russians had any intention (i.e., capacity) to return, they would not have blown the Antonivsky Bridge. They would not have wasted time and resources they don't have to spare setting up defensive lines on the East bank of the Dnipro.

The Russians were undermanned in comparison to the Ukrainian force attacking them, a tactical withdrawal would still require blowing up the bridge to stop further (albeit temporary) Ukrainian advance under such circumstances. Meanwhile the establishment of a new defensive line on the other bank of the river also has the advantage of being on higher ground compared to the position that they vacated, perfect for the artillery barrage that will be unleashed on the Ukrainians soon enough.

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

…No one's moving tanks and artillery over a frozen river, if it even freezes.

I wasn’t referring to the river freezing, I was talking about the ground freezing, it’s difficult for man and machine to work efficiently and effectively in deep mud…to be effective, artillery pieces (the backbone of Russian military doctrine) need to be highly maneuverable after firing their salvos, they need to be quickly repositioned to avoid counter battery fire, last thing you want is your artillery piece being stuck in mud and being a sitting duck for enemy fire.

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

That's what getting your ass kicked is - losing men and equipment, not having the ability to resupply and being in danger of being surrounded and wiped out.

Ukraine is losing far more than Russia is…Ukraine has lost most of its better trained men, it is finding it difficult to arm the men it has left and the western systems being brought into Ukraine are too few in number and often require more retraining for Ukrainian forces to use them effectively…only one side of this conflict is highly dependent on outside benefactors to meet its resupply needs - how long do you think Zelenskyy will be able to do that for…?

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Kiev was a "tactical withdrawal". Chernihiv and Sumy were "tactical withdrawals". The entire northern front was a "tactical withdrawal". Kharkiv was a "tactical withdrawal". Kherson was a "tactical withdrawal". Russia has been "tactically withdrawing" for the past 7.5 months and has "tactically withdrawn" from 50% of all the territory it captured during its initial attack.

Armies only "tactically withdraw" when their getting their arse's kicked. It's called defeat. Politicians spinning a narrative call it a "tactical withdrawal".

The modern battlefield is a dynamic environment, things rarely go to plan, armies have setbacks and the unforeseen often becomes reality but good commanders are aware of the need to be reactive to disruptions…some withdrawals are a necessity, many are purely tactical to reshape the dynamics of the battlefield - Kherson is one of many such examples in this conflict at the end of the day just take a look at the map…Ukrainian gains are small slivers and pockets along the frontline due to the many reasons already identified in this thread.

I’ll say it again - the next 4 - 6 weeks will be the last of the softly softly unRussian like approach to warfare, after this 4-6 week timeframe the Russians will unleash hell.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

I’ll say it again - the next 4 - 6 weeks will be the last of the softly softly unRussian like approach to warfare, after this 4-6 week timeframe the Russians will unleash hell.

What is your prediction for the next 4-6 weeks exactly? That Russia will regain territory? Cause significant damage to the Ukrainian army? Get resupplied from Iran and North Korea?