Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

Premature speculation…on the back of US administration & Polish administration commentary not pointing the finger at Russia and conversely the Baltic states and Zelensky screaming Article 5 from the rooftops would suggest a Ukrainian air defense malfunction.

Whether it was Russian or Ukrainian, I'm sure it wasn't intentional. But I'm also sure it will be used to maximum effect against Russia.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

I think you're barely thinking.

But maybe it's nothing. Go and ask Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab at the G20 to clarify the WEF position. Let me know who voted them in while you're at it.

Gates is American, so that makes it all good. You definitely wouldn't question his agenda, would you? If only we were all into his brand of philanthropy.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but judging from the standard of your posts, I'm not assuming you're right either.

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

You chose not to compare Macedonia's lack of sovereignty with that of Ukraine. The USA is clearly in control of Macedonia. What naive drug induced expedition makes you believe Ukraine is any better in this regard?

Macedonia lost its sovereignty because that's how the Macedonian people like it. Not because some private company was hired to build an app or bought some farmland. I wouldn't say the US is in control of Macedonia, I'd say its whoever happens to fly in on any given day. Sometimes its Madagascar.

But going by your logic, if the Australian Government were to hire a private consultancy firm from China, that would automatically mean China is in control of Australia. But what about the thousands of other international companies that provide goods and services to our federal and state governments? Which one is in control? Just the American ones? Or just the ones that tickle your personal fancy? And what are you saying exactly - that governments pay private companies to control the country??

What about the approximately 9 million hectares of Australian farmland owned by Chinese companies? Does that mean they control Australia?

At the end of the day, you're just talking shit. It's easy to repost random crap from random guys on random internet sites. Why don't you try providing a coherent argument supported by some actual evidence?

[Risto the Great]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

Premature speculation…on the back of US administration & Polish administration commentary not pointing the finger at Russia and conversely the Baltic states and Zelensky screaming Article 5 from the rooftops would suggest a Ukrainian air defense malfunction.

For what it's worth:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...29251161075712

So what crashed in the village of Przewodów, Poland today?

With the cooperation of
@blueboy1969
we analyzed the available photos of fragments and came to a clear conclusion that they belong to the 48D6 motor of the 5V55-series missile of the S-300 AD system- a Ukrainian one.

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Whether it was Russian or Ukrainian, I'm sure it wasn't intentional. But I'm also sure it will be used to maximum effect against Russia.

Not too much adds up...

If the reporting is correct that it was an S300, they have a very limited operating range <200km (I think)...which would put them out of range of Poland if fired from Russia/Russian held territory.

The S300 is a surface-to-air defence system and wouldn't be used in a surface-to-surface role (at least highly unlikely to be used that way).

When you consider the missile hit a farm (sadly killed two people) it would appear to be high risk/low reward endeavour for the Russians if they were trying to get a response from NATO and potentially invoke an Article 5 response when the Russians could simply send a hypersonic missile to take out the NATO HQ in Brussels.

The Ukrainian S300's are Soviet era systems and have been poorly maintained, a recipe for disaster and not the first time in this conflict that they fucked-up.

Then take a look at who is screaming the loudest, the usual antagonists...Zelensky, the Baltics, some Poles and the Brits.

And finally, didn't the Russians run out of missiles, like in early March...?

On the contrary, the Russians escalated their bombing of Ukraine with missiles and drones, a possible precursor to ramping up their winter offensive, Ukrainian air defences were stretched and overwhelmed leading to accidents such as this but what better way to garner sympathy from your western benefactors than to demonise those pesky Russians.

[Risto the Great]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

And what are you saying exactly - that governments pay private companies to control the country??

I'm saying companies pay governments to control countries. You'll come round.

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

At the end of the day, you're just talking shit. It's easy to repost random crap from random guys on random internet sites. Why don't you try providing a coherent argument supported by some actual evidence?

I'll try to post random crap from mainstream media in the future. But it's way too random. How much truth are you actually looking for though?

p.s. Russia was supplying over 40% of aircraft titanium. Nobody messed with that supply chain. I couldn't care less about Russia or Ukraine. But I found it interesting that nothing interfered with business continuing. And nothing interfered with money still going into Ukraine ... except FTX

Meanwhile you have some notion of Zelenskyy Churchill giving the V for victory with a cigar in his mouth. It's cute. But it only works with the cocaine he is on.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

Not too much adds up...

If the reporting is correct that it was an S300, they have a very limited operating range <200km (I think)...which would put them out of range of Poland if fired from Russia/Russian held territory.

The S300 is a surface-to-air defence system and wouldn't be used in a surface-to-surface role (at least highly unlikely to be used that way).

When you consider the missile hit a farm (sadly killed two people) it would appear to be high risk/low reward endeavour for the Russians if they were trying to get a response from NATO and potentially invoke an Article 5 response when the Russians could simply send a hypersonic missile to take out the NATO HQ in Brussels.

The Ukrainian S300's are Soviet era systems and have been poorly maintained, a recipe for disaster and not the first time in this conflict that they fucked-up.

Then take a look at who is screaming the loudest, the usual antagonists...Zelensky, the Baltics, some Poles and the Brits.

And finally, didn't the Russians run out of missiles, like in early March...?

On the contrary, the Russians escalated their bombing of Ukraine with missiles and drones, a possible precursor to ramping up their winter offensive, Ukrainian air defences were stretched and overwhelmed leading to accidents such as this but what better way to garner sympathy from your western benefactors than to demonise those pesky Russians.

It was most probably a Ukrainian stuff up. It'll be interesting to see how far the Poles push the issue.

[Carlin]

The "stuff up" looks increasingly deliberate.

Gergely Gouyash, head of the office of the Prime Minister of Hungary: "The actions of Ukrainian President Zelensky turned out to be irresponsible as he accused Russia of launching a missile attack in eastern Poland, although the Ukrainians were to blame for this incident".

[kompir]

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, the narrative in the MSM has morphed over the past 24 hours. On the surface, it's as though the missile strike "woke" up the media but there's more to it than that, like their position has become untenable...

[Vangelovski]

Russian conscripts are inadequate for war fighting. More examples:

Russian military commanders reportedly ignored existing plans for offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction and committed poorly trained reinforcements to costly assaults on Pavlivka out of impatience. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed on November 15 that Russian forces initially planned to attack in the Vuhledar area from two directions but that he and other commanders realized that the poor training of reinforcements and their inability to contact brigade commanders made such plans impossible.[20] Khodakovsky claimed that brigade commanders changed the plan completely and committed all Russian forces in the area to an attack on Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[21] ISW had previously reported that Russian forces prematurely impaled an insufficient concentration of mobilized personnel on offensive pushes aimed at seizing Pavlivka leading to extensive losses, particularly among the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.[22] Russian military officials likely abandoned their initial plans and committed poorly trained reinforcements to the assault on Pavlivka due to a sense of politically-driven urgency to restart the Donetsk offensive campaign before the planned Russian withdrawal from Kherson City.

The high costs associated with the Russian offensive push on Pavlivka continue to generate criticism of Russian military leadership. Khodakovsky claimed that Russian military leadership is trying to blame the “miserable results” on the commander of the 40th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet for not properly supporting the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.[23] Khodakovsky argued that the brigade commanders are guilty of the high costs of the assault and that the commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, should not allow an “innocent” commander to take the blame for the poor planning of Russian military leadership.[24] ISW previously assessed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to the extensive Russian milblogger outcry concerning the losses associated with the Pavlivka offensive operation.[25] Khodakovsky’s criticisms of the Russian military command indicate that the Russian MoD likely failed to address the outrage fully and that Russian pro-war figures and milbloggers will continue to criticize Russian military commanders.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-15

And if Russia is now buying 35 year-old T-72s from Belarus, it has serious production issues. According to the Military Balance, Belarus operates T-72Bs, which entered service in 1985. It only has about two dozen upgraded T-72B3s.

Russian forces are continuing to replenish their diminishing supplies with Belarusian military equipment. Belarusian group “Society of Railway Personnel of Belarus” claimed that Belarusian forces delivered 98 T-72 tanks, 40 BMP-2 armored vehicles, 20 dismantled BMPs, and 53 Ural trucks from the Belarusian 969th tank reserve base located in Minsk Oblast, Belarus throughout October.[74]

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-15

[Carlin]

Responding to Zelensky’s remarks tonight, a NATO country diplomat told me:

“This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...66202955075586