Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Vangelovski]

Looks like the Russian winter/spring offensive is wrapping up with no gains to speak of, other than a dozen villages and half of Bakhmut.

We can expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive over the coming weeks. I think it will be successful in liberating a significant amount of territory, much like the operations in the Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts late last year.

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Defense Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian offensive actions have decreased significantly over the last week and noted that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.[1] Dmytrashkivskyi reported that Russian forces have somewhat lost offensive potential due to significant manpower and equipment losses.[2] Dmytrashkivskyi’s statements are consistent with ISW’s general observation regarding the pace of Russian operations along the entire frontline in Ukraine. The Russian offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast is likely nearing culmination, if it has not already culminated, although Russia has committed most elements of at least three divisions to the Svatove-Kreminna line.[3] Russian forces have made only minimal tactical gains along the entire Luhansk Oblast frontline over the last week, and Ukrainian forces have likely recently managed to conduct counterattacks and regain territory in Luhansk Oblast.[4] ISW has been unable to confirm the commitment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) to the offensive in Luhansk Oblast since certain unspecified elements reportedly deployed to Luhansk Oblast in January--the only large formation assessed to be operational but not yet engaged.[5] It is unclear if the 2nd Motor Rifle Division has already deployed and has not been observed or if it is waiting to deploy to either Luhansk Oblast or other areas of the front. The commitment of two or three of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division’s constituent regiments, however, is unlikely to significantly delay or reverse the culmination of the Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast, especially considering that at least five Russian regiments have definitely been fully committed in this area, likely along with several others, but Russian forces have still been unable to make substantial gains.[6]

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-15-2023

[Risto the Great]

I'm betting on the economic devastation of USA shortly. With immediate collateral consequences for Ukraine.

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Looks like the Russian winter/spring offensive is wrapping up with no gains to speak of, other than a dozen villages and half of Bakhmut.

We can expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive over the coming weeks. I think it will be successful in liberating a significant amount of territory, much like the operations in the Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts late last year.

^^^^ That is real NAFO commentary above with a huge dose of copium thrown in.

The winter was relatively short and mild, the anticipated big freeze never really gained any significant traction with neither side able to fully exploit the conditions.
If anything, the inability to move mechanised units will hamper the Russian side being the offensive force more so than the defensive structures employed by the Ukrainians

Wagner (often referred to as the 'musicians' or the 'orchestra' by many pundits) are the primary force attacking the Bakhmut conurbation.

The city of Bakhmut and its surrounding areas are some of Ukraines most heavily fortified and defended regions anywhere on the front line in this conflict and it speaks volumes of its strategic importance to Ukraine.

Considering the resources and manpower that Ukraine has dedicated to the defence of Bakhmut, Wagner has managed to chip away and breakdown the defences in this region. Wagner has proven to be a peer-to-peer fighting force that has been methodically dismantling a combined US/NATO/Western proxy.

To trivialise and label the winter period as a - "no gains to speak of, other than a dozen villages and half of Bakhmut" moment is the equivalent of somebody hearing voices when they are clearly alone, a statement totally divorced from reality.

Bakhmut is being surrounded and cut off from all supply lines, Zelen is committing evermore Ukrainian troops to this death trap that Wagner are methodically setting up. Some commentators have even suggested that the life expectancy of a Ukrainian soldier sent to the frontline around Bakhmut to be approximately 4 hours.

If anything the mild winter has only prolonged the inevitable for Ukraine in the order of a few months...Once Bakhmut falls completely which will most likely happen in the late spring/early summer it will open the floodgates for Russian forces to mover deeper west unimpeded because Bakhmut is Ukraines final stand.

The west can't supply Ukraine with defensive weapons stock to hold the line, let alone enough weaponry and manpower to dream about advances or delusional counter offensives.

I think the other point that you're missing is the clearly stated goal of the Russian side - to demilitarise Ukraine, that entails a war of attrition.

A war of attrition requires strong logistics and industrial capacity, Ukraine can't produce shit to defend itself, the west is impotent because for almost thirty years that chased goat-herders around the hills and in the caves of Afghanistan...their military doctrine has focused on fighting asymmetrical threats brainstormed by suicide vest wearing goat-herders not a peer-to-peer force fighting on multiple levels using cutting edge military technologies together with Cold War level manoeuvre/big arrow warfare - requiring a completely different level of logistics that the west doesn't have the capacity for.

The evidence for lack of capacity in the western military supply system is the complete shit-show that is the tank program for Ukraine, the lack of artillery shells, the lack of drones, the lack of IFV's and everything else Zelen has gone begging to the west with.

The Ukrainians want a complete new army with 300 tanks...what the fuck do you think happened to all the tanks they had in early Feb 2022.
A request for an additional 300 tanks is the same number that the UK, Germany and the French have on a good day.

So the Russians are destroying the equivalent of a large NATO army in terms of at least tank numbers every 10 months or so...

How long do you seriously think that circus has got to run before the NATO armies have been depleted of most of their stocks...and with very little industrial capacity to restock in a hurry...???

Russia is just chipping away...time is on their side.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

^^^^ That is real NAFO commentary above with a huge dose of copium thrown in.

The winter was relatively short and mild, the anticipated big freeze never really gained any significant traction with neither side able to fully exploit the conditions.
If anything, the inability to move mechanised units will hamper the Russian side being the offensive force more so than the defensive structures employed by the Ukrainians

Wagner (often referred to as the 'musicians' or the 'orchestra' by many pundits) are the primary force attacking the Bakhmut conurbation.

The city of Bakhmut and its surrounding areas are some of Ukraines most heavily fortified and defended regions anywhere on the front line in this conflict and it speaks volumes of its strategic importance to Ukraine.

Considering the resources and manpower that Ukraine has dedicated to the defence of Bakhmut, Wagner has managed to chip away and breakdown the defences in this region. Wagner has proven to be a peer-to-peer fighting force that has been methodically dismantling a combined US/NATO/Western proxy.

To trivialise and label the winter period as a - "no gains to speak of, other than a dozen villages and half of Bakhmut" moment is the equivalent of somebody hearing voices when they are clearly alone, a statement totally divorced from reality.

Bakhmut is being surrounded and cut off from all supply lines, Zelen is committing evermore Ukrainian troops to this death trap that Wagner are methodically setting up. Some commentators have even suggested that the life expectancy of a Ukrainian soldier sent to the frontline around Bakhmut to be approximately 4 hours.

If anything the mild winter has only prolonged the inevitable for Ukraine in the order of a few months...Once Bakhmut falls completely which will most likely happen in the late spring/early summer it will open the floodgates for Russian forces to mover deeper west unimpeded because Bakhmut is Ukraines final stand.

The west can't supply Ukraine with defensive weapons stock to hold the line, let alone enough weaponry and manpower to dream about advances or delusional counter offensives.

I think the other point that you're missing is the clearly stated goal of the Russian side - to demilitarise Ukraine, that entails a war of attrition.

A war of attrition requires strong logistics and industrial capacity, Ukraine can't produce shit to defend itself, the west is impotent because for almost thirty years that chased goat-herders around the hills and in the caves of Afghanistan...their military doctrine has focused on fighting asymmetrical threats brainstormed by suicide vest wearing goat-herders not a peer-to-peer force fighting on multiple levels using cutting edge military technologies together with Cold War level manoeuvre/big arrow warfare - requiring a completely different level of logistics that the west doesn't have the capacity for.

The evidence for lack of capacity in the western military supply system is the complete shit-show that is the tank program for Ukraine, the lack of artillery shells, the lack of drones, the lack of IFV's and everything else Zelen has gone begging to the west with.

The Ukrainians want a complete new army with 300 tanks...what the fuck do you think happened to all the tanks they had in early Feb 2022.
A request for an additional 300 tanks is the same number that the UK, Germany and the French have on a good day.

So the Russians are destroying the equivalent of a large NATO army in terms of at least tank numbers every 10 months or so...

How long do you seriously think that circus has got to run before the NATO armies have been depleted of most of their stocks...and with very little industrial capacity to restock in a hurry...???

Russia is just chipping away...time is on their side.

Sure. Let's revisit this once the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.

[Vangelovski]

A Russian wife turned to her husband and asked, "What's this special military operation our glorious leader keeps talking about?"

Her husband replied, "It's a war to stop America and NATO."

"Oh, right” she says “How's it going?"

“Well” he replies, “so far we have lost over 20 generals, 110,000 troops killed, countless injured, 3000 tanks, 300 aircraft, hundreds of helicopters, countless armoured vehicles, artillery and trucks, our flagship along with other naval ships, our army is being defeated in most areas and we have had to resort to conscription to replace our losses”.

“Wow”, replied the wife. “What about America and NATO”?

“They haven’t turned up yet”.

[kompir]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Sure. Let's revisit this once the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.

Ne se nadevaj. Unless NATO and the US fess up and admit they're in this poo poo covertly and throw everything at this including the kitchen sink, Ukraine may well end up being a historical footnote.

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

A Russian wife turned to her husband and asked, "What's this special military operation our glorious leader keeps talking about?"

Her husband replied, "It's a war to stop America and NATO."

"Oh, right” she says “How's it going?"

“Well” he replies, “so far we have lost over 20 generals, 110,000 troops killed, countless injured, 3000 tanks, 300 aircraft, hundreds of helicopters, countless armoured vehicles, artillery and trucks, our flagship along with other naval ships, our army is being defeated in most areas and we have had to resort to conscription to replace our losses”.

“Wow”, replied the wife. “What about America and NATO”?

“They haven’t turned up yet”.

I was almost convinced reading your allegory involving Igor and Natasha above but because Igor never once mentioned that the Russki's have almost run out of shovels...I'm calling a big BULLSHIT on the whole thing...

[Carlin]

The rail lines to Avdeevka have been reached by the enveloping Russian pincer to the northeast. Another key Ukrainian stronghold being taken into a pocket.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeImeniPu...06144881295360

[Carlin]

The local authorities of Avdeevka have made a statement declaring that all civilians must evacuate the city.

Russian forces are rapidly encircling the city, with analysts expecting it to fall before even Bakhmut.

Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell on the situation in Avdeevka:

https://mobile.twitter.com/exoLedlig...13375915704326

[Carlin]

Ukraine is preparing a powerful counteroffensive that will "shock the whole world". - Dan Rice, special adviser to the commander-in-chief of the AFU Valery Zaluzhny