Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Vangelovski]

I think this is a very likely scenario for Ukraine's next offensive. It removes the need to cross the Dnipro River or undertake an amphibious landing from sea to take the remaining part of the Kherson Oblast under Russian control and then move onto Crimea. Not much has been happening in this Zaporizhzhia region and I suspect the Ukrainians have been building up their forces there. Russia on the other hand is desperately short of men and material and the entire region (along with Donetsk and Luhansk) is within range of Ukrainian HIMARS, enabling them to target Russian supplies, logistics centers, communications and command HQ.

And there are growing hints from troops on the ground, and volunteers close to them, that the Ukrainians are preparing for a new land offensive between those two fronts, south through the Zaporizhzhia region toward Melitopol, challenging Russia’s hold on the entire southern area that it seized in the invasion that began in February.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/w...gy-russia.html

[Vangelovski]

Weapons systems, no matter how advanced, are meaningless if their operators cannot take full advantage of them. The Russian Air Force is a case in point.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=4c8ce7352741

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

What is your prediction for the next 4-6 weeks exactly? That Russia will regain territory? Cause significant damage to the Ukrainian army? Get resupplied from Iran and North Korea?

I'm saying nothing much will happen for another 4 to 6 weeks.
Russian forces in certain positions along the frontline are at their most vulnerable at the moment.

The relatively small Russian force fighting in Ukraine was heavily dependent on manoeuvre tactics which have been recently impeded due to the weather (the period between late autumn and the winter freeze)

Manoeuvre warfare requires strong and efficient logistics capabilities but those efforts have been hampered by the weather and the deployment of the reserve forces.

In 4 to 6 weeks, when the temperature is mostly below zero and the ground freezes, manoeuvre warfare becomes easier and most of the reserve forces will be ready for duty and Russian operations can ramp up without the recent logistic disruptions.

I think the goal of the Russians will be the same moving forward, to establish control (protection) of the newly incorporated regions, to continue the destruction of the Ukrainian military (in all of its forms) and thus force Zelensky and his backers into a corner.

Russia buying hardware from other nations is not new, all militaries during conflicts do the same...why wouldn't Russia take advantage of cheap drones from Iran if they're effective and/or need to be tested and evaluated in a conflict zone?

I read something today that Ukraine will be getting artillery shells from South Korea...many sources are claiming that the US military is stretched to resupply the Ukrainians with everything that they need. Even in the latest $400M instalment the number of artillery shells supplied by the US was good for less than a week of fighting.

Once again I think the Russian industrial military complex is better geared to resupply than the US is at the moment.

[Carlin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.times...w/95505670.cms

Turkish Interior Minister: We know where the terrorist attack in Istanbul was coordinated from, we do not accept the condolences of the US Embassy

[Vangelovski]

Looks like the British have trained them well. But we'll have to see if the Ukrainians can turn this into a foothold for further advances.

According to Russian media sources, the Ukrainian army has entered the city of Herois’ke, in the Kinburn Peninsula in the southern part of Kherson, following an amphibious operation, as heavy fighting continues across the region.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...f-the-invasion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=4c859784304d

[Risto the Great]

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/minis...paniyeyu-svitu

The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding agreeing on a framework for consultative assistance in developing a special platform to attract private capital for the recovery and support of Ukraine’s economy.

The platform will focus on mobilizing investment in key sectors of Ukrainian economy, while taking into account the reconstruction needs resulting from the full-scale russian invasion.

In particular, the agreement signed on November 10, 2022 in Washington, DC, provides that BlackRock’s Financial Markets Advisory will consult the Ministry of Economy on creation of a roadmap for the implementation of an investment platform, which will primarily attract private capital. This includes the structure of the platform, its mandate and governance.

Thus, the Memorandum formalizes the preliminary discussion of opportunities for attracting public and private investment in Ukraine, which took place in September between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Larry Fink.

“It is very important for us to demonstrate to the whole world that the war does not disallow investment in Ukraine. After all, investments are the key to the future rapid and effective economic recovery. Therefore, we have high expectations for cooperation with BlackRock’s FMA division. We hope that this “recovery platform” will become an effective mechanism for mobilizing investments in key sectors of our economy”, said First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yuliia Svyrydenko after signing the Memorandum.

For reference

BlackRock’s FMA division provides leading expertise in investment and asset management, risk management and technology. It also has extensive experience in advising public sector clients on capital markets.

TRANSLATION:

Ukraine is now officially a de-industrialized black hole farmland owned by BlackRock.

Sovereignty in the arse.

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/minis...paniyeyu-svitu



Sovereignty in the arse.

Is that what Ukraine winning looks like...?

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Looks like the British have trained them well. But we'll have to see if the Ukrainians can turn this into a foothold for further advances.

The veracity of that story is highly contentious at the moment...

What we are far more certain of is the ever growing push of high ranking US officials in 'nudging' Zelenski in the direction of peace talks.

The need for Ukraine to call up 45+ year old males to fight, the increased scarcity of battlefield necessities like artillery shells (specifically 155 mm howitzer shells) from not US inventory (because their stocks are severely depleted) but South Korean manufacturers, even then the order is for reportedly 100K rounds, in a conflict where the Russians have at times been firing 60K rounds/day, 100K for Ukraine is minuscule to their total requirements to keep fighting.

Meanwhile the Russians are about to incorporate between 100K to 200K well trained and well equipped men of fighting age into the conflict.

[Risto the Great]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

Is that what Ukraine winning looks like...?

It's what USA winning looks like. (No matter the outcome in Ukraine)

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Phoenix

Russian forces in certain positions along the frontline are at their most vulnerable at the moment.

We agree on something.

Russia buying hardware from other nations is not new, all militaries during conflicts do the same...why wouldn't Russia take advantage of cheap drones from Iran if they're effective and/or need to be tested and evaluated in a conflict zone?

Russia has long claimed that it is self-sufficient in its military industrial capabilities. Many analysts also assumed it was too. But its wartime production capacity hasn't been tested since WWII.

I read something today that Ukraine will be getting artillery shells from South Korea...many sources are claiming that the US military is stretched to resupply the Ukrainians with everything that they need. Even in the latest $400M instalment the number of artillery shells supplied by the US was good for less than a week of fighting.

Yes and Ukraine has never claimed it was self-sufficient in its war production needs.

Once again I think the Russian industrial military complex is better geared to resupply than the US is at the moment.

The two are lightyears apart. Besides, the US wartime production capacity has been tested over and over and over and has delivered every time.

The veracity of that story is highly contentious at the moment...

Yes, we'll need a few days before anything is confirmed.

The need for Ukraine to call up 45+ year old males to fight,

Its pretty standard to mobilize all men, 18-60, during an existential threat. Do you have a link?

the increased scarcity of battlefield necessities like artillery shells

Do you have a source for that?

in a conflict where the Russians have at times been firing 60K rounds/day

I've seen hugely varying numbers on this, but the two armies are using very different tactics. The Ukrainian army is actually using highly mobile and creative maneuvers, while the Russians don't seem to have moved on from WWI and so far they've only come up with the same old and predictive idea of shelling for a few hours and then sending in the infantry and armour.

The Ukrainians have actually learned and applied combined arms maneuvers, whereas the Russians seem to think that combined arms means using each in turn in a predictive pattern that has been around for 100 years. They seem to have failed to understand that combined arms maneuvers require the use of different combat arms simultaneously and creatively to defeat the enemy.

Meanwhile the Russians are about to incorporate between 100K to 200K well trained and well equipped men of fighting age into the conflict.

We have very different definitions of "well trained" and "well equipped".