United Macedonia Diaspora

[Volk]

Its not the Greek State that has invested in Macedonia - its PRIVATE investors who's financial interests directly clash with the political adventurism of the Greek Government. And its not only Greek companies that have invested in Macedonia - companies based in other countries have as well.

I am aware of this, however I dont believe they will give up the dispute just for the sake of money that the EU will hand feed them regardless.

Maybe you should try and understand (I've already explained it to you on Maknews) what the Interim Accord and Framework Agreement actually mean for Macedonia.

I am very familiar with what they actually mean for our nation, the only thing we do not agree upon is the timing. You are advocating opening a front on two sides simultaneously. Partnering the greeks with the albanians, this is not a good strategy.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Volk

The embargo crippled us in 95 because our border to serbia was shut, we simply had to access to the international market. We are not in the same situation now, however an embargo would number 1 stop any future and current foreign investments, ruin our image, cut the economy by , I am estimating 20% with thousands losing their jobs. This coupled with the world financial crisis which has already effected the industrial and textile sector would be a setback of 10 years. The albanians are a critical factor in this as well, they will scream why should be pay for your name.

Volk,

This is scaremongering. How about you try and substantiate some of these very specific claims? Maybe try with the ones I've highlighted?

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Volk

I am aware of this, however I dont believe they will give up the dispute just for the sake of money that the EU will hand feed them regardless.


I am very familiar with what they actually mean for our nation, the only thing we do not agree upon is the timing. You are advocating opening a front on two sides simultaneously. Partnering the greeks with the albanians, this is not a good strategy.

Volk,

If you were aware of what the Interim Accord and Framework Agreement meant for Macedonia, I don't think we'd be having this conversation or the many previous ones on Maknews. Nor would you dismiss UMD's support of these "agreements" as simple "posturing". There is no reason to "look moderate" by supporting treason and undermining our national sovereignty and human rights. In my view, UMD is an "extremist" organisation in that its fanatically pursuing an anti-sovereignty and anti-human rights position just so it can "look moderate".

[Soldier of Macedon]

Originally Posted by Volk

The embargo crippled us in 95 because our border to serbia was shut, we simply had no access to the international market. We are not in the same situation now, however an embargo would number 1 stop any future and current foreign investments, ruin our image, cut the economy by , I am estimating 20% with thousands losing their jobs. This coupled with the world financial crisis which has already effected the industrial and textile sector would be a setback of 10 years. The albanians are a critical factor in this as well, they will scream why should be pay for your name.

A Greek embargo would stop any future and current investments from Greece though, not from any other countries (or will it?), and this is where my question is, do we really need Greek investments to survive as a state? Or is more so the access to the port which is a necessity for us to trade with others? Are we putting too much emphasis on the influence of Greece, or not enough?

In the worst-case scenario, what survival options do we have at our disposal were we to tell the Greeks to shove their 'talks' and withdraw altogether?

[Volk]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Volk,

This is scaremongering. How about you try and substantiate some of these very specific claims? Maybe try with the ones I've highlighted?

however an embargo would number 1 stop any future and current foreign investments,

You dont agree with this? If so I think your a bit naive. Which company would want to invest millions into a country when they cannot find a route to export their products?

ruin our image

The extent of this depends on the situation and media coverage on the ground. If the scenario erupts in violence from the siptari which is a possibility then undoubtedly it would ruin our image. What I am trying to say is any destabilization of the country would hurt our image.

Thousands of workers are employed by greek owned companies, this is a fact.

Maybe you would point out why these things would not happen. Would it not be prudent and good planing to prapare for these scenarios and aviod or minimize their effect?

I am happy to answer your questions and have a debate however you have not bothered to answer mine and by avoiding them weakening your argument.

[Vangelovski]

Volk,

You still haven't substantiated any of your specific claims nor are you taking into consideration the damage that Greece would cause to its own economy, its own private investors in Macedonia, other European investors in Macedonia, Greece's own ongoing economic problems and its social unrest (which we witnessed over the past month).

Like I said earlier, the Montenegro and Stip options are good, but even when they are up and running, the usual suspects (defeatists and scaremongers) will find new reasons not to withdraw from negotiations - they've been predicting imminent doom for 20 years now.

Have courage and be resolute

[Bratot]

Originally Posted by Rogi

The big companies that get involved in Macedonia, such as the French bank "Société Générale" which bought the Ohrid bank (as one example of the now many) hold some significant political influence in their home countries.

They would not like to lose money on their investments in Macedonia on the account of Greece's nationalism.

The political, economic and diplomatic landscape is much different today than it was some 15 years ago and Greece cannot declare an unilateral embargo on Macedonia - or if it does, it will be unable to maintain it for very long.
I think the suggestion that Greece will initiate an embargo on Macedonia if we were to end the negotiations and move toward a UN Resolution on the name is un-realistic and those who suggest it do not consider all the factors that are involved which make it quite an unrealistic move.

I agree, Societe Generale is part of a huge corporation. With big influence.

But, can you explain more 'plastically' how they will lose their investment if Greece put an embargo?

And don't you think that such embargo, on part of the foreign investors in MK would have other development than suggested upper?

On a contrary, from what have been proved in practice so far, the reaction of the foreign investors wont be directed towards Greece, but there gonna be initiated huge international pressure from the domestic countries of those companies, toward Macedonian government to accept the Greek demanding and to change the name.

Thats how the eventual embargo would reflect. Thats why I am personally bitter from our politicians.

Originally Posted by Pelister

Thats it in a nutshell for me Vangelovski.

Giving people the opportunity "to vote" on what OUR name should be - is giving ALL the power in regards to who we are over to others.

I agree.

Originally Posted by Volk

Once we have established crna gora as our sea port and build a international cargo airport our reliance of greece greatly diminishes. I am unsure of the time frame but a realistic estimate would be 1 - 2 years, hopefully earlier.

The embargo crippled us in 95 because our border to serbia was shut, we simply had no access to the international market. We are not in the same situation now, however an embargo would number 1 stop any future and current foreign investments, ruin our image, cut the economy by , I am estimating 20% with thousands losing their jobs. This coupled with the world financial crisis which has already effected the industrial and textile sector would be a setback of 10 years. The albanians are a critical factor in this as well, they will scream why should be pay for your name.

Completing corridor 8 (west to east Macedonia) would mean we are not bound by the blackmails of the south. albania would then be our port, bulgaria is within immediate access (currently there is no infrastructure).

Dont get me wrong, if we abandoned the talks tomorrow I would be cheering up and down finally at least of ending the humiliation. However we need the plans in place to absorb the damage, another year or so will not kill us taking into account the ramifications.

Meanwhile the 'greeks' can drive to serbia on Aleksandar Makedonski highway

Don't get me wrong either. But the crucial question, no matter which political party is ruling, WHY THE HECK, SO FAR NON OF THIS STRATEGICALLY SIGNIFICANT STEPS ARE NOT DONE?

They are not even started, they should be our priority. But instead of it, the building of the railways to Bulgaria are blocked, to Albania too, nothing happening with the such loudly promoted cargo airport in Shtip etc.

As I often say.. someone among us..is not 'our'. ( nekoj megju nas ne e "nash" )

Originally Posted by Soldier of Macedon

A Greek embargo would stop any future and current investments from Greece though, not from any other countries (or will it?), and this is where my question is, do we really need Greek investments to survive as a state? Or is more so the access to the port which is a necessity for us to trade with others? Are we putting too much emphasis on the influence of Greece, or not enough?

In the worst-case scenario, what survival options do we have at our disposal were we to tell the Greeks to shove their 'talks' and withdraw altogether?

Maybe we are putting too much emphasis on their influence, but I totally agree that all future development would be questioned if we are dealing with embargo under this conditions which are actual now in this moment.

Originally Posted by Volk

You dont agree with this? If so I think your a bit naive. Which company would want to invest millions into a country when they cannot find a route to export their products?


The extent of this depends on the situation and media coverage on the ground. If the scenario erupts in violence from the siptari which is a possibility then undoubtedly it would ruin our image. What I am trying to say is any destabilization of the country would hurt our image.

Thousands of workers are employed by greek owned companies, this is a fact.


Maybe you would point out why these things would not happen. Would it not be prudent and good planing to prapare for these scenarios and aviod or minimize their effect?

I am happy to answer your questions and have a debate however you have not bothered to answer mine and by avoiding them weakening your argument.

Can you please justify the number.. - thousands? Lets hear what is the actual number, because this way of presenting the arguments make unrealistic predictions.

Thousands can be 2, 30, 200.000... give me a number, justified.


Yes, we should prepare. And what are we waiting so far?

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Volk,

You still haven't substantiated any of your specific claims nor are you taking into consideration the damage that Greece would cause to its own economy, its own private investors in Macedonia, other European investors in Macedonia, Greece's own ongoing economic problems and its social unrest (which we witnessed over the past month).

Like I said earlier, the Montenegro and Stip options are good, but even when they are up and running, the usual suspects (defeatists and scaremongers) will find new reasons not to withdraw from negotiations - they've been predicting imminent doom for 20 years now.

Have courage and be resolute!

The courage is not enough alone, first you need a brain in order not to waste it for nothing.

The embargo, eventual, will have big impact on our economy and in general reflecting on our position.
Thats the truth.

Until someone, accomplish those strategic projects of national interest, the railway,airport etc.

The unofficial embargo, which Greece have done to us in the beggining of last year, had a pretty big impact on us.



There were efforts to lay on the USA support and to use 'our' partnership, by enforcing a new Draft resolution by the Security Council re-admitting Republic of Macedonia to the United Nations under its Constitutional name.

This idea ( with ready Draft resolution text ) was sent to our government and personally to Mr. Gruevski.
We even took the freedom to adress the U.S. embassy in Macedonia.

But, the reality is, we don't have a real partners in anyone, to relay on.

[Vangelovski]

Bratot,

The only reason Greek embargoes have any effect, is because the Macedonian Government does not RECIPROCATE. Its too scared that it will "look bad" in front of its foreign masters.

[Risto the Great]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Bratot,

The only reason Greek embargoes have any effect, is because the Macedonian Government does not RECIPROCATE. Its too scared that it will "look bad" in front of its foreign masters.

This is it.
Anyone who suggests Macedonia has something to lose by aggressively defending its rights in the worldwide community is simply another victim! Every time I go to Macedonia, everyone whinges their arse off about how bad it is. How much worse could it get? What would be so bad if the Macedonians assert their rights, suffer a fraction more (possibly) from Greek embargoes, then have a solid foundation from which to build a sovereign nation from? In fact, by forcing Greece to show its nasty hand, it would shame them in the worldwide community.

Not difficult stuff. Macedonia has nothing to lose.

[Bratot]

I think both of you should spend more time in Macedonia living the everyday reality. No offence.

I can only partially agree with you.