Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Carlin]

All foreign embassies in Kiev have been ordered to evacuate their staff immediately. Reports that the German consulate was struck.

[Carlin]

Terror on Crimea Bridge forces Russia to unleash Shock’n Awe

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/16704

[Carlin]

Rumors that something 'Big' is expected in the coming days by Russia. Missile strikes were just the start of a "new phase". Russians bombarded several cities overnight.

"Russia's victory in the conflict in Ukraine will be a defeat for NATO, this CANNOT be allowed", Alliance Secretary General Stoltenberg said.

Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov in response to Stoltenberg that NATO is ready for nuclear threat from RF wrote: “Is the NATO Secretary General right in the head? In the event of a nuclear conflict, his beloved Norway will end up deserted rocks. What kind of idiocy is this?”

S. Lavrov: "There is more and more information that regular military personnel from the United States and European countries are constantly working directly in Ukraine. De facto Americans have been participating for a long time in the conflict in Ukraine... U.S. has long been de facto involved in war in Ukraine."

[Carlin]

.. and winter is coming

https://mobile.twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1579923863471034368

[Carlin]

JUST IN - Sweden blocks joint investigation with Germany and Denmark into Nord Stream explosions.

Sweden says the "safety classification of the investigation is too high" to share the result with other countries, Spiegel reports.

[Soldier of Macedon]

JUST IN - Sweden blocks joint investigation with Germany and Denmark into Nord Stream explosions.

Sweden says the "safety classification of the investigation is too high" to share the result with other countries, Spiegel reports.

Read: Oops, we just found out our puppet musters are responsible, and we can't reveal it publicly.

[YuriB]

I love a nuanced discussion. We're not having one right now. Russians believe these lands are Russian. The rest of the world doesn't believe them. Macedonians believe Egej is Macedonian. The rest of the world doesn't believe them.

So, is the pro-Russian statement hiding a hope that if borders are possible to be changed for Russia, so can they be for Macedonia? Isn't it more likely that precedent will be used by countries like Albania/Kosovo to achieve this against Macedonia? Or even Bulgaria, who like Russia with Ukrainians, perceives Macedonians as mutilated Bulgarians?

What is the real risk assessment of the situation? Maybe 0.05% Macedonian speakers in Greece vs. 30% Albanian speakers in Macedonia vs, the Bulgarian nationalistic stories. And add the geopolitics/power/etc in the calculation. Plus NATO country vs NATO country means no NATO support.

Nevertheless, I can empathize to the sentiment/desire to an extent. I don't come from a refugee family myself but many Greeks from the ex Ottoman Empire do and they similarly refer to their lost homes, etc. At times I am thinking we would have all been better together, if we had just tried to reform the Ottoman empire instead of breaking it but..

[Risto the Great]

YuriB, you're the guy who disappears when it's your turn to buy a round of drinks. I won't bother.

[Phoenix]

So, is the pro-Russian statement hiding a hope that if borders are possible to be changed for Russia, so can they be for Macedonia? Isn't it more likely that precedent will be used by countries like Albania/Kosovo to achieve this against Macedonia? Or even Bulgaria, who like Russia with Ukrainians, perceives Macedonians as mutilated Bulgarians?..

What Russia is doing in Ukraine is what nearly every powerful state does to its weaker neighbour(s) if sufficient self-interest exists.
As Mearsheimer states - "Might is Right".

The powerful don't adhere to international laws and the notion of human rights is a very fluid concept when one wields a disproportionate level of power over a weaker adversary.

Macedonia is a perfect example of this not so noble geo-political dynamic...Nobody commenting on this thread is stupid enough to believe that what Russia will get away with in Ukraine will somehow manifest itself in Macedonia...that would be to totally divorce oneself from reality.

[Risto the Great]

Fmr. US ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock: “if Ukraine had been willing to abide by the Minsk agreement, recognize the Donbas as an autonomous entity within Ukraine, avoid NATO military advisors, and pledge not to enter NATO,” war “probably would have been prevented.”

https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1582094274606563329?s=20&t=FswfIKakb9qKPK0Z_4CMAA

Don't you just hate it when little truths escape?

[Vangelovski]

https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/statu...b9qKPK0Z_4CMAA

Don't you just hate it when little truths escape?

Why should Ukraine have to recognise the Donbas as an autonomous entity? Or avoid NATO advisors or membership if that's what it wants to do? Why should Russia dictate that to Ukraine?

Matlock is nothing but a Chamberlain. He's suggesting that appeasement would have prevented a dictator from doing what he's been talking about doing for 20 years.

[Risto the Great]

Why should Ukraine have to recognise the Donbas as an autonomous entity? Or avoid NATO advisors or membership if that's what it wants to do? Why should Russia dictate that to Ukraine?

I will will answer with my Cuban cigar in my mouth that I call "Missile".

The answer was in the original statement. To avoid a war.

[Vangelovski]

I will will answer with my Cuban cigar in my mouth that I call "Missile".

The answer was in the original statement. To avoid a war.

That's not a good reason. There's more important things than avoiding war. And I can't think of a single instance of appeasement avoiding war anyway. Hence my reference to Chamberlain.

[Risto the Great]

How about to avoid a (nuclear) war? Is that better?

Should a sovereign nation be able to do anything it wants its own people? Is that what you are getting at? What would it take before external intervention is arguably or potentially warranted? If Macedonia decided to exterminate its ethnic Albanian population, would it get a knock (or bomb) at its door from any nations?

[Vangelovski]

How about to avoid a (nuclear) war? Is that better?

What scaremongering. It reminds me of Macedonians who for 30 years screeched doom and gloom every time someone opposed capitulation. I'm pretty certain there won't be a nuclear war. But even if the Russian General Staff were willing to carry out such an order, you can't live your life appeasing a bully - they'll use the same threat to take more than you can give. Again, it's the Chamberlains making all the noises when we actually need a Churchill.

Should a sovereign nation be able to do anything it wants its own people? Is that what you are getting at? What would it take before external intervention is arguably or potentially warranted? If Macedonia decided to exterminate its ethnic Albanian population, would it get a knock (or bomb) at its door from any nations?

What exactly are we talking about here? Putin's claims that Ukraine undertook genocide against ethnic Russians without being able to produce evidence? Or are you talking about civilian casualties in a war that Russia started because its preferred President was ousted through mass protests (you know the kind we've called for in Macedonia)?

Are you now suggesting that you agree with US military interventions on humanitarian grounds? Or just Russian ones?

It's kind of like you never actually read anything I posted on this forum over the past decade on the topic of sovereignty...